Global Cardiovascular Diseases Death Rate Prediction

Abstract

Cardiovascular diseases (CVD) are heart and blood vessels diseases with considerable morbidity and mortality and presenting worldwide public health burden, moreover CVDs are the leading cause of death globally. This paper describes a novel bio-system reliability approach, particularly suitable for multi-regional environmental and health systems, observed over a sufficient period of time, resulting in a reliable long-term forecast of cardiovascular diseases mortality probability. Objective has been to determine extreme cardiovascular diseases death rate probability at any time in any region of interest. Traditional statistical methods dealing with temporal observations of multi-regional processes do not have the advantage of dealing efficiently with extensive regional dimensionality and cross-correlation between different regional observations. Design of this analysis was based on applying novel statistical methods directly to a raw clinical data, with subsequent data analysis using multicenter, population-based, medical survey data based bio-statistical approach. For this study, cardiovascular diseases annual numbers of recorded deaths in all 195 world countries were chosen. The suggested methodology can be used in various public health applications, based on their clinical survey data.