Development and validation of a novel radiomics-clinical model for predicting post-stroke epilepsy after first-ever intracerebral haemorrhage

Abstract

Objectives: Post-stroke epilepsy (PSE) is associated with increased morbidity and mortality. This study aimed to develop and validate a novel prediction model combining clinical factors and radiomics features to accurately identify patients at high risk of developing PSE after intracerebral haemorrhage (ICH).

Methods: Researchers performed a retrospective medical chart review to extract derivation and validation cohorts of patients with first-ever ICH that attended two tertiary hospitals in China between 2010 and 2020. Clinical data were extracted from electronic medical records and supplemented by tele-interview. Predictive clinical variables were selected by multivariable logistic regression to build the clinical model. Predictive radiomics features were identified, and a Rad-score was calculated according to the coefficient of the selected feature. Both clinical variables and radiomic features were combined to build the radiomics-clinical model. Performances of the clinical, Rad-score, and combined models were compared.

Results: A total of 1571 patients were included in the analysis. Cortical involvement, early seizures within 7 days of ICH, NIHSS score, and ICH volume were included in the clinical model. Rad-score, instead of ICH volume, was included in the combined model. The combined model exhibited better discrimination ability and achieved an overall better benefit against threshold probability than the clinical model in the decision curve analysis (DCA).

Conclusions: The combined radiomics-clinical model was better able to predict ICH-associated PSE compared to the clinical model. This can help clinicians better predict an individual patient's risk of PSE following a first-ever ICH and facilitate earlier PSE diagnosis and treatment.

Key points: • Radiomics has not been used in predicting the risk of developing PSE. • Higher Rad-scores were associated with higher risk of developing PSE. • The combined model showed better performance of PSE prediction ability.

Keywords: Cerebral haemorrhage; Epilepsy; Radiomics.