The optimal allocation of Covid-19 vaccines

Abstract

We develop a simple model of vaccine prioritization for a potential pandemic. We illustrate how the model applies to the case of Covid-19, using an early 2020 primitive estimate of occupation-based exposure risks and age-based infection fatality rates. Even based on primitive estimates the vaccine distribution strongly emphasizes age-based mortality risk rather than occupation-based exposure risk. Among others, our result suggests that 50-year-old food-processing workers and 60-year-old financial advisors should have been equally prioritized. We also find that the priorities minimally change when certain populations' exposure risks are altered by targeted stay-at-home orders or call-up of essential workers.

Keywords: Occupational health; Optimal assignment.

Fig. 1

Age cutoffs for vaccinations and age groups staying at home. Occupations on the $x$-axis are ordered based on their infection risk. (A) The optimal vaccination policy showing the youngest age for each occupation that is eligible to receive the vaccine. (B) The optimal vaccination policy showing the youngest age for each occupation that is eligible to receive the vaccine, together with the occupation–age groups that are mandated to stay at home. (C) The optimal vaccination policy showing the youngest age for each occupation which cannot be done from home that is eligible to receive the vaccine, together with the occupation–age groups that are mandated to stay at home. Occupations that can be done from home do not receive a vaccine.

Fig. 2

Priorities among some selected age–occupation groups. The groups with the top priority are marked in the darkest blue, and they receive vaccines even when the supply is 30 million doses. Lighter blues mark the groups with the second and the third priority, and they will get vaccines when the supply is, respectively, 60 million and 100 million doses. The rest groups with the lowest priorities are marked in white. (For interpretation of the references to color in this figure legend, the reader is referred to the web version of this article.)