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. 2023 Jan 29;7(2):e2022GH000698.
doi: 10.1029/2022GH000698. eCollection 2023 Feb.

Climate Drivers of Malaria Transmission Seasonality and Their Relative Importance in Sub-Saharan Africa

Edmund I Yamba  1 , Andreas H Fink  2 , Kingsley Badu  3 , Ernest O Asare  4 , Adrian M Tompkins  5 , Leonard K Amekudzi  1
Affiliations

Climate Drivers of Malaria Transmission Seasonality and Their Relative Importance in Sub-Saharan Africa

Edmund I Yamba et al. Geohealth. .

Abstract

A new database of the Entomological Inoculation Rate (EIR) was used to directly link the risk of infectious mosquito bites to climate in Sub-Saharan Africa. Applying a statistical mixed model framework to high-quality monthly EIR measurements collected from field campaigns in Sub-Saharan Africa, we analyzed the impact of rainfall and temperature seasonality on EIR seasonality and determined important climate drivers of malaria seasonality across varied climate settings in the region. We observed that seasonal malaria transmission was within a temperature window of 15°C-40°C and was sustained if average temperature was well above 15°C or below 40°C. Monthly maximum rainfall for seasonal malaria transmission did not exceed 600 in west Central Africa, and 400 mm in the Sahel, Guinea Savannah, and East Africa. Based on a multi-regression model approach, rainfall and temperature seasonality were found to be significantly associated with malaria seasonality in all parts of Sub-Saharan Africa except in west Central Africa. Topography was found to have significant influence on which climate variable is an important determinant of malaria seasonality in East Africa. Seasonal malaria transmission onset lags behind rainfall only at markedly seasonal rainfall areas such as Sahel and East Africa; elsewhere, malaria transmission is year-round. High-quality EIR measurements can usefully supplement established metrics for seasonal malaria. The study's outcome is important for the improvement and validation of weather-driven dynamical mathematical malaria models that directly simulate EIR. Our results can contribute to the development of fit-for-purpose weather-driven malaria models to support health decision-making in the fight to control or eliminate malaria in Sub-Saharan Africa.

Keywords: climate; drivers; malaria; relative; seasonal; transmission.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare no conflicts of interest relevant to this study.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
The map of the Sub‐Saharan Africa showing field survey sites for Entomological Inoculation Rate (EIR). The color gradient of each site show the maximum EIR available. The blue lines delineate the region into climate zones of Sahel, Guinea, WCA and EA.
Figure 2
Figure 2
A pair‐wise comparison showing the ranges of RR, T min, T mean, and T max at which EIRm occurs. The colored circles show log‐transformed EIRm values.
Figure 3
Figure 3
Average monthly time series of EIRm and rainfall.
Figure 4
Figure 4
The cross‐correlation between Rainfall and EIRm at different lags. The numbers 39, 36, 13, and 29 show the number of location observations contributing to the box‐and‐whisker for each lag.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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