Skip to main page content
U.S. flag

An official website of the United States government

Dot gov

The .gov means it’s official.
Federal government websites often end in .gov or .mil. Before sharing sensitive information, make sure you’re on a federal government site.

Https

The site is secure.
The https:// ensures that you are connecting to the official website and that any information you provide is encrypted and transmitted securely.

Access keys NCBI Homepage MyNCBI Homepage Main Content Main Navigation
Review
. 2023;116(2):1355-1402.
doi: 10.1007/s11069-022-05722-z. Epub 2023 Feb 6.

A review of common natural disasters as analogs for asteroid impact effects and cascading hazards

Timothy Titus  1 , D Robertson  2 , J B Sankey  3 , L Mastin  4 , F Rengers  5
Affiliations
Review

A review of common natural disasters as analogs for asteroid impact effects and cascading hazards

Timothy Titus et al. Nat Hazards (Dordr). 2023.

Abstract

Modern civilization has no collective experience with possible wide-ranging effects from a medium-sized asteroid impactor. Currently, modeling efforts that predict initial effects from a meteor impact or airburst provide needed information for initial preparation and evacuation plans, but longer-term cascading hazards are not typically considered. However, more common natural disasters, such as volcanic eruptions, earthquakes, wildfires, dust storms, and hurricanes, are likely analogs that can provide the scope and scale of these potential effects. These events, especially the larger events with cascading effects, are key for understanding the scope and complexity of mitigation, relief, and recovery efforts for a medium-sized asteroid impact event. This paper reviews the initial and cascading effects of these natural hazards, describes the state of the art for modeling these hazards, and discusses the relevance of these hazards to expected long-term effects of an asteroid impact. Emergency managers, resource managers and planners, and research scientists involved in mitigation and recovery efforts would likely derive significant benefit from a framework linking multiple hazard models to provide a seamless sequence of related forecasts.

Keywords: Asteroid impact; Cascading hazards; Integrated framework; Planetary defense.

PubMed Disclaimer

Conflict of interest statement

Conflict of interestThe authors have no conflicts of interest to declare that are relevant to the content of this paper.

Figures

Fig. 1
Fig. 1
A graphical abstract that shows the interconnectedness of cascading hazards from an asteroid impact scenario. In general, the cascading hazards are displaced in space or time as one moves out from the center of the circle. Multiple feedback processes occur. Often the timing of the hazard is triggered by rain or snowmelt events. While not specifically noted in the diagram, poisoned wildlife or crop failure will impact human communities through reduced food security, tainted drinking water, and economic impact.
Fig. 2
Fig. 2
Illustration of key volcano hazards that are relevant to hazards of asteroid impacts. It should be noted that the ash clouds can reach the stratosphere, resulting in global cooling effects
Fig. 3
Fig. 3
Wildfire initial effects and cascading hazards. Figure Credit: A. Kasprak and J. Sankey; Photo Credits: U.S. Geological Survey Multi- Media Galleries, USDA Forest Service, and J. Sankey
See this image and copyright information in PMC

References

    1. Abdolzadeh M, Nikkhah R. Experimental study of dust deposition settled over tilted PV modules fixed in different directions in the southeast of Iran. Environ Sci Pollut Res. 2019;26(30):31478–31490. doi: 10.1007/s11356-019-06246-z. - DOI - PubMed
    1. Aftosmis M, Nemec M, Mathias D, Berger M. Numerical simulation of bolide entry with ground footprint prediction AIAA 2016–0998. SciTech. 2016 doi: 10.2514/6.2016-0998. - DOI
    1. Aftosmis MJ, Mathias DL, Tarano AM (2019) Simulation-based height of burst map for asteroid airburst damage prediction. Acta Astronaut 156:278–283
    1. Al Hemoud A, Al Dousari A, Misak R, Al-Sudairawi M, Naseeb A, Al-Dashti H, Al-Dousari N. Economic impact and risk assessment of sand and dust storms (SDS) on the oil and gas industry in Kuwait. Sustainability. 2019;11(200):1–19.
    1. Alsweiss S, Hanna R, Laupattarakasem P, Jones W, Hennon C, Chen R. A non-MLE approach for satellite scatterometer wind vector retrievals in tropical cyclones. Remote Sens. 2014;6:4133–4148. doi: 10.3390/rs6054133. - DOI

LinkOut - more resources