Aversion, interpretation and determinability: Three factors of uncertainty that may play a role in psychopathology

Abstract

This opinion piece considers the construct of tolerance of uncertainty and suggests that it should be viewed in the context of three psychological factors: uncertainty aversion, uncertainty interpretation, and uncertainty determinability. Uncertainty aversion refers to a dislike of situations in which the outcomes are not deterministic and is similar to conventional conceptions of (in)tolerance of uncertainty. Uncertainty interpretation refers to the extent to which variability in an observed outcome is interpreted as random fluctuation around a relatively stable base-rate versus frequent and rapid changes in the base-rate. Uncertainty determinability refers to the (actual or perceived) capacity of the individual to generate any meaningful expectancy of the uncertain outcome, which may be undeterminable if predictions are updated too quickly. We argue that uncertainty interpretation and determinability are psychological responses to the experience of probabilistic events that vary among individuals and can moderate negative affect experienced in response to uncertainty. We describe how individual differences in basic parameters of associative learning (modelled by a simple learning window) could lead to this variation. To explain these hypotheses, we utilise the distinction between aleatory uncertainty (the inherent unpredictability of individual stochastic events) and epistemic uncertainty (obtainable knowledge that the individual lacks or perceives to be lacking). We argue that when expectancies are updated quickly, epistemic uncertainty will dominate the individual's representation of the events around them, leading to a subjective experience of the world as one that is volatile and unpredictable.

Keywords: Anxiety; Associative learning; Individual differences; Learning window width; Tolerance of uncertainty.

Fig. 1

Expected outcome predictions for a trial sequence with a 3:7 outcome base-rate for individuals with a narrow, medium, and wide window width. Solid lines indicate outcome predictions on each trial. Dashed lines indicate the range of predictions for each window width. Wider window widths will change value less frequently, whereas narrower window widths will produce more frequent changes and less stability over time