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. 2023 Feb 20;13(2):e067840.
doi: 10.1136/bmjopen-2022-067840.

Screening tools for predicting mortality of adults with suspected sepsis: an international sepsis cohort validation study

Paul W Blair  1 , Rittal Mehta  2 , Chris Kwaku Oppong  3 , Som Tin  4 , Emily Ko  5 , Ephraim L Tsalik  5   6 , Josh Chenoweth  2 , Michelle Rozo  2 , Nehkonti Adams  7 , Charmagne Beckett  7 , Christopher W Woods  5   8 , Deborah A Striegel  2 , Mark G Salvador  2 , Joost Brandsma  2 , Lauren McKean  2 , Rachael E Mahle  5 , William R Hulsey  9 , Subramaniam Krishnan  9 , Michael Prouty  10 , Andrew Letizia  11 , Anne Fox  11 , Dennis Faix  10 , James V Lawler  12   13 , Chris Duplessis  14 , Michael G Gregory  14 , Te Vantha  4 , Alex Kwame Owusu-Ofori  15 , Daniel Ansong  3 , George Oduro  16 , Kevin L Schully  2 , Danielle V Clark  2
Affiliations

Screening tools for predicting mortality of adults with suspected sepsis: an international sepsis cohort validation study

Paul W Blair et al. BMJ Open. .

Abstract

Objectives: We evaluated the performance of commonly used sepsis screening tools across prospective sepsis cohorts in the USA, Cambodia and Ghana.

Design: Prospective cohort studies.

Setting and participants: From 2014 to 2021, participants with two or more SIRS (Systemic Inflammatory Response Syndrome) criteria and suspected infection were enrolled in emergency departments and medical wards at hospitals in Cambodia and Ghana and hospitalised participants with suspected infection were enrolled in the USA. Cox proportional hazards regression was performed, and Harrell's C-statistic calculated to determine 28-day mortality prediction performance of the quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (qSOFA) score ≥2, SIRS score ≥3, National Early Warning Score (NEWS) ≥5, Modified Early Warning Score (MEWS) ≥5 or Universal Vital Assessment (UVA) score ≥2. Screening tools were compared with baseline risk (age and sex) with the Wald test.

Results: The cohorts included 567 participants (42.9% women) including 187 participants from Kumasi, Ghana, 200 participants from Takeo, Cambodia and 180 participants from Durham, North Carolina in the USA. The pooled mortality was 16.4% at 28 days. The mortality prediction accuracy increased from baseline risk with the MEWS (C-statistic: 0.63, 95% CI 0.58 to 0.68; p=0.002), NEWS (C-statistic: 0.68; 95% CI 0.64 to 0.73; p<0.001), qSOFA (C-statistic: 0.70, 95% CI 0.64 to 0.75; p<0.001), UVA score (C-statistic: 0.73, 95% CI 0.69 to 0.78; p<0.001), but not with SIRS (0.60; 95% CI 0.54 to 0.65; p=0.13). Within individual cohorts, only the UVA score in Ghana performed better than baseline risk (C-statistic: 0.77; 95% CI 0.71 to 0.83; p<0.001).

Conclusions: Among the cohorts, MEWS, NEWS, qSOFA and UVA scores performed better than baseline risk, largely driven by accuracy improvements in Ghana, while SIRS scores did not improve prognostication accuracy. Prognostication scores should be validated within the target population prior to clinical use.

Keywords: Adult intensive & critical care; Epidemiology; INFECTIOUS DISEASES; Public health; Tropical medicine.

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Conflict of interest statement

Competing interests: ET has held equity and consulted for Predigen and Biomeme, and he is an employee of Danaher Diagnostics. All other authors declared no competing interests.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Enrolment flow diagram across cohorts.
Figure 2
Figure 2
Kaplan-Meier survival plot of 28-day mortality stratified by site.
Figure 3
Figure 3
The C-statistic by score overall and by cohort (adjusted for age and sex). MEWS, Modified Early Warning Score; NEWS, National Early Warning Score; qSOFA, quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment; SIRS, Systemic Inflammatory Response Syndrome; UVA, Universal Vital Assessment.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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