Skip to main page content
U.S. flag

An official website of the United States government

Dot gov

The .gov means it’s official.
Federal government websites often end in .gov or .mil. Before sharing sensitive information, make sure you’re on a federal government site.

Https

The site is secure.
The https:// ensures that you are connecting to the official website and that any information you provide is encrypted and transmitted securely.

Access keys NCBI Homepage MyNCBI Homepage Main Content Main Navigation
Review
. 2023 Mar 1;39(2):89-94.
doi: 10.1097/MOG.0000000000000911. Epub 2023 Jan 3.

Prognostic modeling in biliary diseases

Camelia Ciobanu  1 , Mark W Russo
Affiliations
Review

Prognostic modeling in biliary diseases

Camelia Ciobanu et al. Curr Opin Gastroenterol. .

Abstract

Purpose of review: To discuss the prognostic models for the cholestatic diseases focusing on primary sclerosing cholangitis and primary biliary cholangitis.

Recent findings: Noninvasive prognostic models that outperform alkaline phosphatase and Mayo Risk Score have been developed to predict clinically significant events, such as transplant free survival or hepatic decompensation. Models for primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC) include UK-PSC, Primary Sclerosing Cholangitis Risk Estimate Tool, and Amsterdam Oxford models. Models for primary biliary cirrhosis (PBC) include UK-PBC, Global primary biliary cholangitis group score (GLOBE) and Paris II scores. Other models have incorporated elastography with or without findings on magnetic resonance imaging.

Summary: Noninvasive prognostic models can inform patients about their risk for clinical outcomes and serve as surrogate intermediate outcomes to determine efficacy of novel agents in clinical trials.

PubMed Disclaimer

References

    1. Boonstra K, Weersma RK, van Erpecum KJ, et al. Population-based epidemiology, malignancy risk, and outcome of primary sclerosing cholangitis. Hepatology 2013; 58:2045–2055.
    1. Ponsioen CY, Chapman RW, Chazouilleres O, et al. Surrogate endpoints for clinical trials in primary sclerosing cholangitis: review and results from an International PSC Study Group Consensus Process. Hepatology 2016; 63:1357–1367.
    1. Mazhar A, Russo MW. Systematic review: noninvasive prognostic tests for primary sclerosing cholangitis. Aliment Pharmacol Ther 2021; 53:774–783.
    1. Al Mamari S, Djordjevic J, Halliday JS, Chapman RW. Improvement of serum alkaline phosphatase to <1.5 upper limit of normal predicts better outcome and reduced risk of cholangiocarcinoma in primary sclerosing cholangitis. J Hepatol 2013; 58:329–334.
    1. Rupp C, Rossler A, Halibasic E, et al. Reduction in alkaline phosphatase is associated with longer survival in primary sclerosing cholangitis, independent of dominant stenosis. Aliment Pharmacol Ther 2014; 40:1292–1301.