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. 2023 Feb 15;20(4):3395.
doi: 10.3390/ijerph20043395.

Trends in Online Search Activity and the Correlation with Daily New Cases of Monkeypox among 102 Countries or Territories

Min Du  1 , Chenyuan Qin  1 , Wenxin Yan  1 , Qiao Liu  1 , Yaping Wang  1 , Lin Zhu  2 , Wannian Liang  3 , Min Liu  1 , Jue Liu  1   4   5
Affiliations

Trends in Online Search Activity and the Correlation with Daily New Cases of Monkeypox among 102 Countries or Territories

Min Du et al. Int J Environ Res Public Health. .

Abstract

Research assessing the trend in online search activity on monkeypox (mpox) and the correlation with the mpox epidemic at the global and national level is scarce. The trend of online search activity and the time-lag correlations between it and daily new mpox cases were estimated by using segmented interrupted time-series analysis and Spearman correlation coefficient (rs), respectively. We found that after the declaration of a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC), the proportion of countries or territories with increasing changes in online search activity was lowest in Africa (8.16%, 4/49), and a downward trend in online search activity was highest in North America (8/31, 25.81%). The time-lag effect of global online search activity on daily new cases was significant (rs = 0.24). There were eight countries or territories with significant time-lag effect; the top three countries or territories were Brazil (rs = 0.46), United States (rs = 0.24), and Canada (rs = 0.24). Interest behavior in mpox was insufficient, even after the declaration of PHEIC, especially in Africa and North America. Online search activity could be used as an early indicator of the outbreak of mpox at the global level and in epidemic countries.

Keywords: disparities; emergency; monkeypox; online search activity; public health emergency of international concern.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare that they have no competing interests.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Worldwide daily online search activity and mpox new cases.
Figure 2
Figure 2
The trend and change in online search activity before and after public health emergency of international concern: (A) the daily average change trend of online search activity before the declaration of PHEIC; (B) the change of online search activity after the declaration of PHEIC; (C) the daily average change trend of online search activity after the declaration of PHEIC.
Figure 3
Figure 3
Heat plot of the time lag correlation of the online search activity and mpox new cases in 102 countries or territories.
Figure 4
Figure 4
Time-lag correlations of online search activity and daily new cases in the top three countries or territories by positive and negative lags. * P < 0.05; *** P < 0.001.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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