Predicting the onset of rheumatoid arthritis

Abstract

Various scores have attempted to predict the onset of rheumatoid arthritis (RA). In particular, EULAR proposed a simple rule to identify new-onset arthralgia suspicious for progression to RA. However, its specificity would likely be higher if serological tests were included. In patients with clinical arthritis, reliable predictive criteria for progression to RA have also been identified. Overall, the validity of the available scores is still being debated. Such scores do not fully account for the interactions between risk factors in specific subpopulations. New technologies could help to overcome these limitations, but we need databases containing a sufficient number of RA and pre-RA patients, including pre-diagnostic monitoring. Today, the existing predictive rules cannot compete with expert opinions.

Keywords: Biomarker; Data science; Epidemiology; Prediction; Predictive model; Rheumatoid arthritis.