Skip to main page content
U.S. flag

An official website of the United States government

Dot gov

The .gov means it’s official.
Federal government websites often end in .gov or .mil. Before sharing sensitive information, make sure you’re on a federal government site.

Https

The site is secure.
The https:// ensures that you are connecting to the official website and that any information you provide is encrypted and transmitted securely.

Access keys NCBI Homepage MyNCBI Homepage Main Content Main Navigation
. 2023 Feb 13:11:1079877.
doi: 10.3389/fpubh.2023.1079877. eCollection 2023.

Model-based risk assessment of dengue fever transmission in Xiamen City, China

Zhinan Guo  1 , Weikang Liu  2 , Xingchun Liu  2 , Buasiyamu Abudunaibi  2 , Li Luo  2 , Sihan Wu  1 , Bin Deng  2 , Tianlong Yang  2 , Jiefeng Huang  2 , Shenggen Wu  3 , Lei Lei  1 , Zeyu Zhao  2 , Zhuoyang Li  2 , Peihua Li  2 , Chan Liu  2 , Meirong Zhan  3 , Tianmu Chen  2
Affiliations

Model-based risk assessment of dengue fever transmission in Xiamen City, China

Zhinan Guo et al. Front Public Health. .

Abstract

Background: Quantitative assessment of the risk of local transmission from imported dengue cases makes a great challenge to the development of public health in China. The purpose of this study is to observe the risk of mosquito-borne transmission in Xiamen City through ecological and insecticide resistance monitoring. Quantitative evaluation of mosquito insecticide resistance, community population and the number of imported cases affecting the transmission of dengue fever (DF) in Xiamen was carried out based on transmission dynamics model, so as to reveal the correlation between key risk factors and DF transmission.

Methods: Based on the dynamics model and combined with the epidemiological characteristics of DF in Xiamen City, a transmission dynamics model was built to simulate the secondary cases caused by imported cases to evaluate the transmission risk of DF, and to explore the influence of mosquito insecticide resistance, community population and imported cases on the epidemic situation of DF in Xiamen City.

Results: For the transmission model of DF, when the community population is between 10,000 and 25,000, changing the number of imported DF cases and the mortality rate of mosquitoes will have an impact on the spread of indigenous DF cases, however, changing the birth rate of mosquitoes did not gain more effect on the spread of local DF transmission.

Conclusions: Through the quantitative evaluation of the model, this study determined that the mosquito resistance index has an important influence on the local transmission of dengue fever caused by imported cases in Xiamen, and the Brayton index can also affect the local transmission of the disease.

Keywords: dengue fever; insecticide resistance monitoring; mathematical model; risk assessment; vector investigation.

PubMed Disclaimer

Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
The flowchart of the development of the dengue fever transmission model.
Figure 2
Figure 2
Geographical location of the study area and distribution of DF cases in Xiamen in 2019. Filled red circle represents the indigenous cases and filled green circle represents the imported cases.
Figure 3
Figure 3
Reported cases of DF in Xiamen City, P.R. China, in 2019.
Figure 4
Figure 4
Monitoring results of mosquito-borne ecology. (A) Brayton index; (B) container index; (C) human-baited double net trapping.
Figure 5
Figure 5
Quantitative assessment results of DF transmission risk in Xiamen City. (A) 10,000 population community; (B) 15,000 population community; (C) 20,000 population community; (D) 25,000 population community; the vertical index represents the mortality of mosquitoes, and the value is 1/15, 1/26, 1/38, and 1/50 respectively, and the horizontal indicator represents the value of BI, which are 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, respectively. The values in each grid represent the number of dengue cases that need to be imported to cause local transmission, and the darker the grid, the more dengue cases need to be imported.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

Similar articles

See all similar articles

Cited by

References

    1. Bhatt S, Gething PW, Brady OJ, Messina JP, Farlow AW, Moyes CL, et al. . The global distribution and burden of dengue. Nature. (2013) 496:504–7. 10.1038/nature12060 - DOI - PMC - PubMed
    1. Khetarpal N, Khanna I. Dengue fever: causes, complications, and vaccine strategies. J Immunol Res. (2016) 2016:6803098. 10.1155/2016/6803098 - DOI - PMC - PubMed
    1. Murphy BR, Whitehead SS. Immune response to dengue virus and prospects for a vaccine. Annu Rev Immunol. (2011) 29:587–619. 10.1146/annurev-immunol-031210-101315 - DOI - PubMed
    1. Endy TP, Yoon IK, Mammen MP. Prospective cohort studies of dengue viral transmission and severity of disease. Curr Top Microbiol Immunol. (2010) 338:1–13. 10.1007/978-3-642-02215-9_1 - DOI - PubMed
    1. Lee HS, Nguyen-Viet H, Nam VS, Lee M, Won S, Duc PP, et al. . Seasonal patterns of dengue fever and associated climate factors in 4 provinces in Vietnam from 1994 to 2013. BMC Infect Dis. (2017) 1:218. 10.1186/s12879-017-2326-8 - DOI - PMC - PubMed

Publication types