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Serial Interval and Incubation Period Estimates of Monkeypox Virus Infection in 12 Jurisdictions, United States, May-August 2022

Zachary J Madewell et al. Emerg Infect Dis. 2023 Apr.

Abstract

Using data from 12 US health departments, we estimated mean serial interval for monkeypox virus infection to be 8.5 (95% credible interval 7.3-9.9) days for symptom onset, based on 57 case pairs. Mean estimated incubation period was 5.6 (95% credible interval 4.3-7.8) days for symptom onset, based on 35 case pairs.

Keywords: United States; epidemiology; monkeypox; monkeypox virus; mpox; natural history; outbreak response; parameter estimation; sexually transmitted infections; viruses.

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Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Empirical and fitted distributions of the serial intervals of rash onset (A) (n = 40 cases) and symptom onset (B) (n = 57 cases) for monkeypox virus, 12 jurisdictions, United States, May–August 2022. Leave-one-out information criterion values for each model are shown inside the plots in the upper right-hand corner.
Figure 2
Figure 2
Updated estimated cumulative density functions according to a log-normal distribution of monkeypox virus incubation periods, by symptom onset (A) (n = 36 cases) and rash onset (B) (n = 35 cases), 12 jurisdictions, United States, May–August 2022.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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MeSH terms