Projections and Epidemiology of Primary Hip and Knee Arthroplasty in Medicare Patients to 2040-2060

Abstract

National projections of future joint arthroplasties are useful for understanding the changing burden of surgery and related outcomes on the health system. The aim of this study is to update the literature by producing Medicare projections for primary total joint arthroplasty (TJA) procedures until 2040 and 2060.

Methods: The present study used data from the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) Medicare/Medicaid Part B National Summary and combined procedure counts with use of Current Procedural Terminology (CPT) codes to identify whether the procedure was a primary total hip arthroplasty (THA) or total knee arthroplasty (TKA) procedure. In 2019, the annual volume of primary TKA was 480,958 and that of primary THA was 262,369. These values formed a baseline from which we generated point forecasts for 2020-2060 and 95% forecast intervals (FIs).

Results: Between 2000 and 2019, the estimated annual volume of THA increased by 177% and that of TKA increased by 156% on average. Regression analysis projected an annual growth rate of 5.2% for THA and 4.44% for TKA. Based on these yearly projected increases, an estimated increase of 28.84% and 24.28% is expected for each 5-year period after 2020 for THA and TKA, respectively. By 2040, the number of THAs is projected to be 719,364 (95% FI, 624,766 to 828,286) and the number of TKA is projected to be 1,222,988 (95% FI, 988,714 to 1,512,772). By 2060, the number of THAs is projected to be 1,982,099 (95% FI, 1,624,215 to 2,418,839) and the number of TKAs is projected to be 2,917,959 (95% FI, 2,160,951 to 3,940,156). In 2019, Medicare data showed that THA constituted approximately 35% of TJA procedures performed.

Conclusions: Based on 2019 total volume counts, our model forecasts an increase in THA procedures of 176% by 2040 and 659% by 2060. The estimated increase for TKA is projected to be 139% by 2040 and 469% by 2060. An accurate projection of future primary TJA procedure demands is important in order to understand future health-care utilization and surgeon demand. This finding is only applicable to a Medicare population and demands further analysis to see if this extends to other population groups.

Level of evidence: Prognostic Level III. See Instructions for Authors for a complete description of levels of evidence.

Fig. 1

Primary THAs and TKAs projected between 2020 and 2060 using log linear model. In each panel, the black line presents observed CMS data (2000-2019), the dotted line presents the point forecasts (2020-2060), the dark gray area is the 80% forecast interval, and the light gray area is the 95% forecast interval.