Directional selection and variation in finite populations

Abstract

Predictions are made of the equilibrium genetic variances and responses in a metric trait under the joint effects of directional selection, mutation and linkage in a finite population. The "infinitesimal model" is analyzed as the limiting case of many mutants of very small effect, otherwise Monte Carlo simulation is used. If the effects of mutant genes on the trait are symmetrically distributed and they are unlinked, the variance of mutant effects is not an important parameter. If the distribution is skewed, unless effects or the population size is small, the proportion of mutants that have increasing effect is the critical parameter. With linkage the distribution of genotypic values in the population becomes skewed downward and the equilibrium genetic variance and response are smaller as disequilibrium becomes important. Linkage effects are greater when the mutational variance is contributed by many genes of small effect than few of large effect, and are greater when the majority of mutants increase rather than decrease the trait because genes that are of large effect or are deleterious do not segregate for long. The most likely conditions for "Muller's ratchet" are investigated.