Impact of climate change on groundwater recharge in shallow young glacial aquifers in northern Poland

Abstract

We investigated the influence of climate change in the period 1951-2020 on shallow aquifers in the Brda and Wda outwash plains (Pomeranian Region, Northern Poland). There was a significant temperature rise (0.3 °C/10 years), which accelerated after 1980 (0.66 °C/10 years). Precipitation became increasingly irregular - extremely rainy years occurred right after or before extremely dry years, and intensive rainfall events became more frequent after 2000. The groundwater level decreased over the last 20 years, even though the average annual precipitation was higher than in the previous 50 years. We carried out numerical simulations of water flow in representative soil profiles for the years 1970-2020 using the HYDRUS-1D model, developed and calibrated during our earlier work at an experimental site in the Brda outwash plain (Gumuła-Kawęcka et al., 2022). We used a relationship between the water head and flux at the bottom of the soil profiles (the third-type boundary condition) to reproduce groundwater table fluctuations caused by recharge variability in time. The calculated daily recharge showed a decreasing linear trend for the last 20 years (0.05-0.06 mm d^-1/10 years), and dropping trends in water table level and soil water content in the entire profile of vadose zone. Field tracer experiments were performed to estimate impact of extremely rain events on water flux in vadose zone. The results suggest that tracer travel times are strongly determined by water content in the unsaturated zone which is determined by precipitation amount in span of weeks, rather than extremely high precipitation events.

Keywords: Climate action; Groundwater recharge; HYDRUS-1D; Numerical model; Unsaturated zone.