Skip to main page content
U.S. flag

An official website of the United States government

Dot gov

The .gov means it’s official.
Federal government websites often end in .gov or .mil. Before sharing sensitive information, make sure you’re on a federal government site.

Https

The site is secure.
The https:// ensures that you are connecting to the official website and that any information you provide is encrypted and transmitted securely.

Access keys NCBI Homepage MyNCBI Homepage Main Content Main Navigation
. 2023 Aug 14;77(3):480-489.
doi: 10.1093/cid/ciad161.

Modeling Respiratory Syncytial Virus Adult Vaccination in the United States With a Dynamic Transmission Model

T Van Effelterre  1 , N Hens  2   3 , L J White  4 , S Gravenstein  5 , A R Bastian  6 , N Buyukkaramikli  1 , C Y Cheng  1 , J Hartnett  7 , G Krishnarajah  8 , K Weber  9 , L Hernandez Pastor  10
Affiliations

Modeling Respiratory Syncytial Virus Adult Vaccination in the United States With a Dynamic Transmission Model

T Van Effelterre et al. Clin Infect Dis. .

Abstract

Background: Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is shown to cause substantial morbidity, hospitalization, and mortality in infants and older adults. Population-level modeling of RSV allows to estimate the full burden of disease and the potential epidemiological impact of novel prophylactics.

Methods: We modeled the RSV epidemiology in the United States across all ages using a deterministic compartmental transmission model. Population-level symptomatic RSV acute respiratory tract infection (ARI) cases were projected across different natural history scenarios with and without vaccination of adults aged ≥60 years. The impact of vaccine efficacy against ARIs, infectiousness and vaccine coverage on ARI incidence were assessed. The impact on medical attendance, hospitalization, complications, death, and other outcomes was also derived.

Results: Without a vaccine, we project 17.5-22.6 million symptomatic RSV ARI cases annually in adults aged ≥18 years in the US, with 3.6-4.8 million/year occurring in adults aged ≥60 years. Modeling indicates that up to 2.0 million symptomatic RSV-ARI cases could be prevented annually in ≥60-year-olds with a hypothetical vaccine (70% vaccine efficacy against symptomatic ARI and 60% vaccine coverage) and that up to 0.69 million/year could be prevented in the nonvaccinated population, assuming 50% vaccine impact on infectiousness.

Conclusions: The model provides estimated burden of RSV in the US across all age groups, with substantial burden projected specifically in older adults. Vaccination of adults aged ≥60 years could significantly reduce the burden of disease in this population, with additional indirect effect in adults aged <60 years due to reduced transmissibility.

Keywords: adult RSV vaccine; dynamic transmission model; respiratory syncytial virus.

PubMed Disclaimer

Conflict of interest statement

Potential conflicts of interest. T. V. E., R. B., N. B., C. Y. C., J. H., G. K., K. W., and L. H. P. are employees of Janssen and may be Johnson & Johnson stockholders. T. V. E. declares ownership of shares in GSK. The University of Antwerp and the University of Hasselt, with whom N. H. is affiliated, received research grant support from MSD, Janssen Vaccines & Prevention, GSK, and IMI project PROMISE (N. H. does not receive any personal remuneration). N. H. reports consulting fees for participation on a Janssen Global Services advisory board related to transmission modeling of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), payment for expert testimony from MSD for participation in the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) Virology/Epidemiology Expert Input Forum (paid to institution), and participation on COVID-19 advisory boards for the Belgium Federal Government and Superior Health Council of Belgium. L. J. W. reports consulting fees from Janssen for participation on advisory boards for UK and global RSV vaccine modeling projects and from AstraZeneca for participation on a scientific advisory committee (paid to institution). S. G. reports consulting fees from Sanofi, Janssen, Pfizer, Seqirus, and GSK; payment for presentations from Sanofi, Seqirus, and Janssen; support for attending meetings and/or travel from GSK, Reviral, and Vaxart; and participation on advisory boards from Janssen, Pfizer, Sanofi, Reviral, and Vaxart (all paid to the author).All other authors report no potential conflicts. All authors have submitted the ICMJE Form for Disclosure of Potential Conflicts of Interest. Conflicts that the editors consider relevant to the content of the manuscript have been disclosed.

Comment in

Publication types

Substances