The seasonality of infections in tropical Far North Queensland, Australia: A 21-year retrospective evaluation of the seasonal patterns of six endemic pathogens

Abstract

An understanding of the seasonality of infections informs public health strategies and assists clinicians in their management of patients with undifferentiated illness. The seasonality of infections is driven by a variety of environmental and human factors; however, the role of individual climatic factors has garnered much attention. This study utilises Poisson regression models to assess the seasonality of six important infections in tropical Australia and their association with climatic factors and severe weather events over a 21-year period. Melioidosis and leptospirosis showed marked wet season predominance, while more cases of rickettsial disease and cryptococcosis were seen in cooler, drier months. Staphylococcus aureus infections were not seasonal, while influenza demonstrated inter-seasonality. The climate did not significantly change during the 21 years of the study period, but the incidence of melioidosis and rickettsial disease increased considerably, highlighting the primacy of other factors-including societal inequality, and the impact of urban expansion-in the incidence of these infections. While anthropogenic climate change poses a threat to the region-and may influence the burden of these infections in the future-this study highlights the fact that, even for seasonal diseases, other factors presently have a greater effect on disease incidence. Public health strategies must also target these broader drivers of infection if they are to be effective.

Fig 1. The study region of Far North Queensland in tropical Australia.

The map was constructed using mapping software (MapInfo version 15.02, Connecticut, USA) using data provided by the State of Queensland (QSpatial). Queensland Place Names—State of Queensland (Department of Natural Resources, Mines and Energy) 2019, available under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International licence https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. ‘Coastline and state border–Queensland—State of Queensland (Department of Natural Resources, Mines and Energy) 2019, available under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International licence https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.

Fig 2. Incidence of the infections in Cairns, Far North Queensland, 1998–2019.

Fig 3. Proportion of the annual number of cases seen in each month in Cairns, Far North Queensland, 1998–2019.

The November-April (inclusive) wet season is highlighted in pale blue at the top of the figure.