The Impact of COVID-19 on Chinese trade and production: An empirical analysis of processing trade with Japan and the US

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic severely disrupted international trade, leading countries to grapple with product shortages and firms to experience major supply chain issues. These challenges increased production costs and significantly contributed to lower trade and higher inflation. In this paper, we examine the impact of COVID-19 on Chinese trade through its two main trading partners: Japan and the US. By differentiating products by product type and processing status, we find evidence that products in the middle of the global supply chain were most affected by the pandemic and that the severity of the shock depends on the partner country's role in the global supply chain. Additionally, we find that Chinese exports are more impacted than Chinese imports, regardless of processing status. These findings are largely consistent with economic theory. Understanding that the effects of global shocks vary by product and country will help guide policies that minimize supply chain disruptions.

Keywords: COVID-19; Chinese processing trade; Supply chains.

Fig. 1

COVID-19 and China’s Exports (Ratio 2020 : 2019) Note: These are created using mirrored data from Japan and the US. Other includes capital and raw materials. Processing equals one if the product has processing potential since the product, at the partner country-product level, contained processing value in 2007.

Fig. A.1

COVID-19 and China’s Imports (Ratio 2020 : 2019) Note: These are created using mirrored data from Japan and the US. Other includes capital and raw materials. Processing equals one if the product has processing potential since the product, at the partner country-product level, contained processing value in 2007.