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. 2023 Mar 29;23(1):187.
doi: 10.1186/s12879-023-08168-1.

Spread and seasonality of COVID-19 pandemic confirmed cases in sub-Saharan Africa: experience from Democratic Republic of Congo, Nigeria, Senegal, and Uganda

Ayo S Adebowale  1   2 , Rotimi F Afolabi  3 , Segun Bello  3 , Mobolaji M Salawu  3 , Eniola A Bamgboye  3 , Ikeola Adeoye  3 , Magbagbeola D Dairo  3 , Betty Kivumbi  4 , Irene Wanyana  5 , Ibrahima Seck  6 , Issakha Diallo  6 , Mamadou M M Leye  6 , Oumar Bassoum  6 , Mane Fall  6 , Rawlance Ndejjo  7 , Steven N Kabwama  8 , Mala Ali Mapatano  9 , Marc Bosonkie  9 , Landry Egbende  9 , Alice Namale  10 , Susan Kizito  7 , Rhoda K Wanyenze  7 , Olufunmilayo I Fawole  3
Affiliations

Spread and seasonality of COVID-19 pandemic confirmed cases in sub-Saharan Africa: experience from Democratic Republic of Congo, Nigeria, Senegal, and Uganda

Ayo S Adebowale et al. BMC Infect Dis. .

Abstract

Background: The COVID-19 pandemic has impacted the world negatively with huge health and socioeconomic consequences. This study estimated the seasonality, trajectory, and projection of COVID-19 cases to understand the dynamics of the disease spread and inform response interventions.

Method: Descriptive analysis of daily confirmed COVID-19 cases from January 2020 to 12th March 2022 was conducted in four purposefully selected sub-Saharan African countries (Nigeria, Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Senegal, and Uganda). We extrapolated the COVID-19 data from (2020 to 2022) to 2023 using a trigonometric time series model. A decomposition time series method was used to examine the seasonality in the data.

Results: Nigeria had the highest rate of spread (β) of COVID-19 (β = 381.2) while DRC had the least rate (β = 119.4). DRC, Uganda, and Senegal had a similar pattern of COVID-19 spread from the onset through December 2020. The average doubling time in COVID-19 case count was highest in Uganda (148 days) and least in Nigeria (83 days). A seasonal variation was found in the COVID-19 data for all four countries but the timing of the cases showed some variations across countries. More cases are expected in the 1st (January-March) and 3rd (July-September) quarters of the year in Nigeria and Senegal, and in the 2nd (April-June) and 3rd (October-December) quarters in DRC and Uganda.

Conclusion: Our findings show a seasonality that may warrant consideration for COVID-19 periodic interventions in the peak seasons in the preparedness and response strategies.

Keywords: COVID-19; Mathematical projection; Sub-Saharan Africa; Trigonometric model.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare no competing interests.

Figures

Fig. 1
Fig. 1
Population pyramid of Nigeria, DRC, Senegal, and Uganda. Source: https://www.populationpyramid.net/uganda/2022/
Fig. 2
Fig. 2
Cumulative daily Cases of COVID-19 in DRC, Nigeria, Senegal and Uganda
Fig. 3
Fig. 3
Distribution of Doubling Time against Doubled Case Counts in DRC, Nigeria, Senegal and Uganda
Fig. 4
Fig. 4
Periodogram and spectra analysis of COVID-19 data in DRC, Nigeria, Senegal, and Uganda
Fig. 5
Fig. 5
Trend and Trigonometrical modeling of COVID-19 data in CDR, Nigeria, Senegal, and Uganda
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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