Booster Dose Vaccination and Dynamics of COVID-19 Pandemic in the Fifth Wave: An Efficient and Simple Mathematical Model for Disease Progression

Abstract

Background: Mathematical studies exploring the impact of booster vaccine doses on the recent COVID-19 waves are scarce, leading to ambiguity regarding the significance of booster doses.

Methods: A mathematical model with seven compartments was used to determine the basic and effective reproduction numbers and the proportion of infected people during the fifth wave of COVID-19. Using the next-generation matrix, we computed the effective reproduction parameter, Rt.

Results: During the fifth COVID-19 wave, the basic reproductive number in Thailand was calculated to be R0= 1.018691. Analytical analysis of the model revealed both local and global stability of the disease-free equilibrium and the presence of an endemic equilibrium. A dose-dependent decrease in the percentage of infected individuals was observed in the vaccinated population. The simulation results matched the real-world data of the infected patients, establishing the suitability of the model. Furthermore, our analysis suggested that people who had received vaccinations had a better recovery rate and that the death rate was the lowest among those who received the booster dose. The booster dose reduced the effective reproduction number over time, suggesting a vaccine efficacy rate of 0.92.

Conclusion: Our study employed a rigorous analytical approach to accurately describe the dynamics of the COVID-19 fifth wave in Thailand. Our findings demonstrated that administering a booster dose can significantly increase the vaccine efficacy rate, resulting in a lower effective reproduction number and a reduction in the number of infected individuals. These results have important implications for public health policymaking, as they provide useful information for the more effective forecasting of the pandemic and improving the efficiency of public health interventions. Moreover, our study contributes to the ongoing discourse on the effectiveness of booster doses in mitigating the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. Essentially, our study suggests that administering a booster dose can substantially reduce the spread of the virus, supporting the case for widespread booster dose campaigns.

Keywords: COVID-19; Omicron; mathematical modeling; simulation; vaccination.

Figure 1

Schematic diagram of the model for disease transmission.

Figure 2

Course of COVID-19 in Thailand from the beginning of the pandemic.

Figure 3

The effect of vaccination dose on hospitalized population (a), the infected population in ICU (b), the total infected population (c) recovered population (R) (d), and the percentage of the deaths (e).

Figure 4

The effect of each vaccination dose on Rt (a), effective reproduction number (Rt) over time (b), and confirmed cases versus model fitting (c).