Common Driving Forces of Provincial-Level Greenhouse Gas and Air Pollutant Emissions in China

Abstract

By developing a filtering framework and a sector-level multi-regional input-output structural decomposition model, this study identifies key common emission sources, motivation sources, and inter-provincial emission flows of both GHGs and air pollutants and reveals the key driving forces of changes in different emissions from 2012 to 2017. Results show that key common emission sources are electricity sector, non-metallic mineral products, and smelting and processing of metals in Shandong and Hebei. However, key common motivation sources are the construction sectors in Guangdong, Henan, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shandong. The key inflow regions include Guangdong and Zhejiang and key outflow regions include Jiangsu and Hebei. The emission reductions are attributed to the emission intensity effect of the construction sector; contrastingly, the emission increase is from the investment scale of the construction sector. Here, Jiangsu could be a key target for future emission reduction because of its high absolute emissions and low past reduction. The scale of investment in construction might be a significant factor in reducing emissions in Shandong and Guangdong. Henan and Zhejiang could concentrate on sound new building planning and resource recycling.

Keywords: China; greenhouse gas; multi-regional input−output model; pollution emissions; structural decomposition analysis.