What is the optimal country for minimum COVID-19 morbidity and mortality rates?

Abstract

The SARS-CoV-2 is a deceptive virus. Despite the remarkable progress in genetic sequencing and subsequent vaccine development, the world continues to grapple with the ominous threats of rapidly appearing SARS-CoV-2 variants. The objective of this manuscript is to rank world countries based on the anticipated scope of COVID-19 morbidity and mortality, measured in terms of prevalence per 1 million persons, from the lowest to the highest. The ranking of 162 countries is based on predictions of empirical models, which include three explanatory variables: hospital beds per thousand persons, population density, and the median age of the country's population. Referring to the COVID-19 scope of morbidity, the lowest likelihood of infection is obtained in Niger and Mali, where the dominant characteristic is the young median age (15.1-16.4 years). Referring to the COVID-19 scope of mortality, the lowest likelihood is obtained in Singapore. For Singapore, the dominant feature is the high population density. The optimal solution is intensive vaccination campaigns in the initial phase of the pandemic, particularly among countries with low GDP per capita. Yet, vaccinations may work only where the personal immune system is healthy and thus respond by creating antibodies to the SARS-CoV2 virus. Referring to populations that lack the natural protection of the healthy immune system and thus cannot be vaccinated (e.g., old people, cancer patients undergoing chemotherapy treatments), a complementary solution might be coordination between countries and the establishment of field hospitals, testing laboratories, isolation of areas, humanitarian aid-in the same manner of treatment in other disasters like earthquakes.

Keywords: COVID-19; Morbidity; Mortality; Per capita hospital beds; Population density.

Fig. 1

Predicted COVID-19 vs. hospital beds per thousand. Notes: Based on the fractional probit regression outcomes reported in columns (1) and (3) in Table 2. The procedure is applied to information regarding 162 countries around the world provided by the World Health Organization (WHO) and spans from January 22, 2020, to January 21, 2022. Predicted values are multiplied by a factor of 1 million

Fig. 2

Predicted COVID-19 vs. population density

Fig. 3

Predicted COVID-19 vs. median age. Notes: Based on the fractional regression outcomes reported in columns (1) and (3) in Table 2. The procedure is applied to information regarding 162 countries around the world provided by the World Health Organization (WHO) and spans from January 22, 2020, to January 21, 2022. Predicted values are multiplied by a factor of 1 million

Fig. 4

Histograms of COVID-19 cases and deaths per 1 million persons. Notes: The graph refers to information regarding 162 countries around the world provided by the World Health Organization (WHO), and spans from January 22, 2020, to January 21, 2022. Infection rates among 53% of the world countries is only 6,322.8 cases per 1 million persons and among less than 1 percent of the world countries is 350,000 cases per 1 million persons. Mortality rates among 50% of the world countries are 115.325 deaths per 1 million persons and among less than 1% of the world countries are 6200 deaths per 1 million persons

Fig. 5

Predicted number of COVID-19 infection events per 1 million persons

Fig. 6

Predicted number of COVID-19 mortality events per 1 million persons. Notes: Based on Columns (1) and (2) in Table 3, where the dependent variable is total COVID-19 cases/deaths per 1 million persons. The Poisson procedure is applied to information regarding 162 countries around the world provided by the World Health Organization (WHO) and spans from January 22, 2020, to January 21, 2022