Comprehensive evaluation of surrogate endpoints to predict overall survival in trials with PD1/PD-L1 immune checkpoint inhibitors plus chemotherapy

Abstract

Background: PD1/PD-L1 immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICI) have revolutionized cancer treatment. Although there is controversy about the accuracy of surrogate endpoints in the ICI setting to predict overall survival (OS), these endpoints are commonly used in confirmatory trials. Here we aimed to explore the validity of classical and novel surrogate endpoints in randomised controlled trials (RCT) that combine ICI plus chemotherapy (CT) in the first-line setting.

Material and methods: A systematic review was conducted to identify RCT investigating anti-PD1/PD-L1 drugs plus CT versus CT alone. We performed (i) arm-level analysis to evaluate predictors of median OS (mOS) and (ii) comparison-level analysis for OS hazard ratio (HR) estimations. Linear regression models weighted by trial size were fitted and adjusted R² values were reported.

Results: Thirty-nine RCTs involving 22,341 patients met the inclusion criteria (17 non-small cell lung, 9 gastroesophageal and 13 in other cancers) with ten different ICI under study. Overall, ICI plus CT improved OS (HR = 0.76; 95%CI: 0.73-0.80). In the arm-level analysis, the best mOS prediction was obtained with a new endpoint that combines median duration of response and ORR (mDoR-ORR) and with median PFS (R² = 0.5 both). In the comparison-level analysis, PFS HR showed a moderate association with OS HR (R² = 0.52). Early OS read-outs were highly associated with final OS outcomes (R² = 0.80).

Conclusions: The association between surrogate endpoints and OS in first-line RCT combining anti-PD1/PD-L1 and CT is moderate-low. Early OS read-outs showed a good association with final OS HR while the mDOR-ORR endpoint could help to better design confirmatory trials after single-arm phase II trials.

Keywords: Duration of response; First-line; Immune checkpoint inhibitors; PD1/PD-L1; Surrogate endpoints.