Abstract

PIP: Evidence of trends in fertility and related variables in Pakistan during the 1970s is analyzed using data from 2 comparable surveys: the 1975 Pakistan Fertility Survey (PFS) and the 1979-80 Population, Labor Force and Migration Survey (PLM). Both suggest that fertility was fairly constant, with a total fertility rate around 7.0 until the 5-year period preceding the surveys (1970-74 and 1975-79, respectively), during which it declined abruptly. The apparent date of the decline is thus conflicting. The evidence of recent decline in each survey is likely to be spurious, the result of systematic distortions in the reporting of dates. The present research finds evidence that fertility as measured by age-specific and marital age-specific rates did not change in Pakistan during the 1970s, except for a decline in age group 15-19 as a result of delayed marriage. An analysis of levels and trends in selected components of fertility indicates that all subgroups, except literate women, show a rise in the average age at marriage of the order of 1/2 a year or so. Differentials between subgroups are in the expected direction, with literate women marrying later than illiterate ones and women in urban areas marrying later than those in rural areas. There is no notable change in the % of children being breastfed; however, the average duration of breastfeeding shows a non-trivial decline in all subgroups. Nonetheless prolonged breastfeeding is still the general practice. Current use of contraception at the time of the 2 surveys actually declined by 1980, while knowledge, reported ever-use, and fertility preferences all moved in a pronatalist direction. The lessons of this study are primarily methodological. In particular, the analysis of fertility change in the future in Pakistan will require either more reliable reporting of birth histories, or the continued piecing together of 2 or more surveys.