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. 2023 Dec;8(12):e915-e922.
doi: 10.1016/S2468-2667(22)00338-3. Epub 2023 Mar 30.

Projections of future life expectancy in China up to 2035: a modelling study

Ruhai Bai  1 , Yunning Liu  2 , Lei Zhang  3 , Wanyue Dong  4 , Zhenggang Bai  5 , Maigeng Zhou  6
Affiliations

Projections of future life expectancy in China up to 2035: a modelling study

Ruhai Bai et al. Lancet Public Health. 2023 Dec.

Abstract

Background: To plan social and health services, future life expectancy projections are needed. The aim of this study was to forecast the future life expectancy for mainland China and its provinces.

Methods: Following the same approach as the Global Burden of Disease Study, we used the largest compiled epidemiological and demographic datasets to estimate age-specific mortality and evaluate population data from 1990 to 2019. A total of 21 life expectancy forecasting models were combined by a probabilistic Bayesian model to forecast the life expectancy for mainland China and its provinces in 2035.

Findings: The projected life expectancy at birth in mainland China in 2035 is 81·3 years (95% credible interval 79·2-85·0), and there is a high probability that the national goals of improving life expectancy will be achieved (79 years in 2030, and over 80 years in 2035). At the provincial level, women in Beijing have the highest projected life expectancy in 2035 with an 81% probability of reaching 90 years, followed by Guangdong, Zhejiang, and Shanghai, which all have more than a 50% probability of surpassing 90 years. Men in Shanghai are projected to have the highest life expectancy at birth in 2035, with a 77% probability of life expectancy being over 83 years, the highest provincial life expectancy in mainland China in 2019. The projected gains in life expectancy are mainly derived from older individuals (aged ≥65 years), except those in Xinjiang, Tibet, and Qinghai (for men), in which the main contributions come from younger (0-29 years) or middle-aged (30-64 years) individuals.

Interpretation: Life expectancy in mainland China and its provinces has a high probability of continuing to increase through to 2035. Adequate policy planning of social and health services will be needed.

Funding: China National Natural Science Foundation and Social Science Fund of Jiangsu Province.

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Conflict of interest statement

Declaration of interests We declare no competing interests.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Trends and projections of life expectancy in mainland China (A) Life expectancy in mainland China for both sexes. The solid purple line shows the life expectancy, and the light purple fan shows the predicted 95% credible interval. The hollow black circle indicates the goal of the Healthy China 2030 Plan for life expectancy, and the hollow black triangle indicates the goal of the 14th Five-Year National Health Plan for life expectancy. (B) Life expectancy in mainland China for women and men. The solid red and blue lines show the life expectancy for women and men, respectively, and the light red and blue fans show the predicted 95% credible intervals. The dashed vertical line indicates the beginning of the projection
Figure 2
Figure 2
Projected life expectancy of women in 2035 vs 2019 for 31 provinces in mainland China Left: Distribution of life expectancy and its median value. Orange dots show the median life expectancy. Right: Probability distribution for each province's rank. Provinces are ordered vertically by the median life expectancy from the largest (at the top) to the smallest (at the bottom).
Figure 3
Figure 3
Projected life expectancy of men in 2035 vs 2019 for 31 provinces in mainland China Left: Distribution of life expectancy and its median value. Orange dots show the median life expectancy. Right: Probability distribution for each province's rank. Provinces are ordered vertically by the median life expectancy from the largest (at the top) to the smallest (at the bottom).
Figure 4
Figure 4
Projected changes in life expectancy from 2019 to 2035 vs life expectancy in 2019 for 31 provinces in mainland China The black diamond dot at the intersection of the dashed lines indicates mainland China. Upper-left: provinces with a higher life expectancy (compared with mainland China in 2019) but lower projected gains (from 2019 to 2035). Upper-right: provinces with a higher life expectancy (compared with mainland China in 2019) and higher projected gains (from 2019 to 2035). Lower-left: provinces with a lower life expectancy (compared with mainland China in 2019) and lower projected gains (from 2019 to 2035). Lower-right: provinces with a lower life expectancy (compared with mainland China in 2019) but higher projected gains (from 2019 to 2035).
Figure 5
Figure 5
Contributions of the projected decline in mortality by age group for 31 provinces in China
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