A machine learning model for predicting blood concentration of quetiapine in patients with schizophrenia and depression based on real-world data

Abstract

Aims: This study aimed to establish a prediction model of quetiapine concentration in patients with schizophrenia and depression, based on real-world data via machine learning techniques to assist clinical regimen decisions.

Methods: A total of 650 cases of quetiapine therapeutic drug monitoring (TDM) data from 483 patients at the First Hospital of Hebei Medical University from 1 November 2019 to 31 August 2022 were included in the study. Univariate analysis and sequential forward selection (SFS) were implemented to screen the important variables influencing quetiapine TDM. After 10-fold cross validation, the algorithm with the optimal model performance was selected for predicting quetiapine TDM among nine models. SHapley Additive exPlanation was applied for model interpretation.

Results: Four variables (daily dose of quetiapine, type of mental illness, sex and CYP2D6 competitive substrates) were selected through univariate analysis (P < .05) and SFS to establish the models. The CatBoost algorithm with the best predictive ability (mean [SD] R² = 0.63 ± 0.02, RMSE = 137.39 ± 10.56, MAE = 103.24 ± 7.23) was chosen for predicting quetiapine TDM among nine models. The mean (SD) accuracy of the predicted TDM within ±30% of the actual TDM was 49.46 ± 3.00%, and that of the recommended therapeutic range (200-750 ng mL^-1 ) was 73.54 ± 8.3%. Compared with the PBPK model in a previous study, the CatBoost model shows slightly higher accuracy within ±100% of the actual value.

Conclusions: This work is the first real-world study to predict the blood concentration of quetiapine in patients with schizophrenia and depression using artificial intelligent techniques, which is of significance and value for clinical medication guidance.

Keywords: CatBoost; artificial intelligent technique; blood concentration prediction; machine learning; quetiapine.