Risk factors of common bile duct stones recurrence and nomogram for predicting recurrence after endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography: a dual-center retrospective cohort study

Abstract

Objective: Common bile duct stone (CBDS) is one of the common diseases in the digestive system, for which endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP) is a treatment procedure. However, the risk factors for CBDS recurrence after ERCP remains unclear. This study aims to compare the risk factors of CBDS recurrence after ERCP, and to set up a nomogram model to predict the long-term risk.

Patients and methods: A retrospective analysis of 355 patients was reviewed. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to identify the risk factors for recurrence. The R packages were used for the model building. The validation set contained 100 patients.

Results: The patients were divided into three subgroups: treated by cholecystectomy after ERCP (11.76% recurrence rate), treated without surgery after ERCP (19.70%), and with a prior history of cholecystectomy (43.64%). Each of them has different independent risk factors, and high body mass index (BMI) is correlated with an increased risk among all the subgroups. A prior history of cholecystectomy is a candidate factor that increases the risk of CBDS recurrence in patients older than 60 years, with a greater BMI, or receiving ERCP combined with EPBD. We built a nomogram model to predict the risk of long-term CBDS recurrence based on the risk factors including age, BMI, CBD diameter, the number of CBDS, and the gallbladder- or biliary tract-related events.

Conclusions: CBDS recurrence is related to congenital and anatomical factors. Cholecystectomy would not be helpful to prevent CBDS recurrence, and a prior history of cholecystectomy may indicate a high risk of recurrence.