A new clinical severity score for the management of acute small bowel obstruction in predicting bowel ischemia: a cohort study

Abstract

Background: Small bowel obstruction (SBO) is a common hospital admission diagnosis. Identification of patients who will require a surgical resection because of a nonviable small bowel remains a challenge. Through a prospective cohort study, the authors aimed to validate risk factors and scores for intestinal resection, and to develop a practical clinical score designed to guide surgical versus conservative management.

Patients and methods: All patients admitted for an acute SBO between 2004 and 2016 in the center were included. Patients were divided in three categories depending on the management: conservative, surgical with bowel resection, and surgical without bowel resection. The outcome variable was small bowel necrosis. Logistic regression models were used to identify the best predictors.

Results: Seven hundred and thirteen patients were included in this study, 492 in the development cohort and 221 in the validation cohort. Sixty-seven percent had surgery, of which 21% had small bowel resection. Thirty-three percent were treated conservatively. Eight variables were identified with a strong association with small bowel resection: age 70 years of age and above, first episode of SBO, no bowel movement for greater than or equal to 3 days, abdominal guarding, C-reactive protein greater than or equal to 50, and three abdominal computer tomography scanner signs: small bowel transition point, lack of small bowel contrast enhancement, and the presence of greater than 500 ml of intra-abdominal fluid. Sensitivity and specificity of this score were 65 and 88%, respectively, and the area under the curve was 0.84 (95% CI: 0.80-0.89).

Conclusion: The authors developed and validated a practical clinical severity score designed to tailor management of patients presenting with an SBO.

Trial registration: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT01125280.

Figure 1

Receiver operating characteristic curves of the full eight-item score (solid line), the seven-item score (dotted line), and the brief four-item score (dashed line). Arrows point to thresholds for high risk (≥4 for the eight-item and seven-item scores, ≥2 for the four-item score).