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. 2023 Apr 11;18(4):e0283721.
doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0283721. eCollection 2023.

Macroeconomic impact of Ebola outbreaks in Sub-Saharan Africa and potential mitigation of GDP loss with prophylactic Ebola vaccination programs

Laura T R Morrison  1 , Benjamin Anderson  1 , Alice Brower  2 , Sandra E Talbird  1 , Naomi Buell  1 , Pia D M MacDonald  1 , Laurent Metz  3 , Maren Gaudig  3 , Valérie Oriol Mathieu  4 , Amanda A Honeycutt  1
Affiliations

Macroeconomic impact of Ebola outbreaks in Sub-Saharan Africa and potential mitigation of GDP loss with prophylactic Ebola vaccination programs

Laura T R Morrison et al. PLoS One. .

Abstract

Introduction: Decisions about prevention of and response to Ebola outbreaks require an understanding of the macroeconomic implications of these interventions. Prophylactic vaccines hold promise to mitigate the negative economic impacts of infectious disease outbreaks. The objective of this study was to evaluate the relationship between outbreak size and economic impact among countries with recorded Ebola outbreaks and to quantify the hypothetical benefits of prophylactic Ebola vaccination interventions in these outbreaks.

Methods: The synthetic control method was used to estimate the causal impacts of Ebola outbreaks on per capita gross domestic product (GDP) of five countries in sub-Saharan Africa that have previously experienced Ebola outbreaks between 2000 and 2016, where no vaccines were deployed. Using illustrative assumptions about vaccine coverage, efficacy, and protective immunity, the potential economic benefits of prophylactic Ebola vaccination were estimated using the number of cases in an outbreak as a key indicator.

Results: The impact of Ebola outbreaks on the macroeconomy of the selected countries led to a decline in GDP of up to 36%, which was greatest in the third year after the onset of each outbreak and increased exponentially with the size of outbreak (i.e., number of reported cases). Over three years, the aggregate loss estimated for Sierra Leone from its 2014-2016 outbreak is estimated at 16.1 billion International$. Prophylactic vaccination could have prevented up to 89% of an outbreak's negative impact on GDP, reducing the outbreak's impact to as little as 1.6% of GDP lost.

Conclusion: This study supports the case that macroeconomic returns are associated with prophylactic Ebola vaccination. Our findings support recommendations for prophylactic Ebola vaccination as a core component of prevention and response measures for global health security.

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Conflict of interest statement

This research was sponsored by Johnson and Johnson Services, Inc., and is related to the development of products licensed to Johnson and Johnson Services, Inc. LTRM, BA, AB, SET, NB, PDMM, and AAH are employees of RTI International which is an independent research organization that received funding from Johnson and Johnson Services, Inc. for the conduct of this study. LM and MG are employees of Johnson & Johnson Global Public Health, and VOM is an employee of Janssen Vaccines & Prevention B.V., which are companies of Johnson & Johnson Services, Inc. This does not alter our adherence to PLOS ONE policies on sharing data and materials.

Figures

Fig 1
Fig 1. GDP per capita in Ebola-affected countries and synthetic controls.
GDP, gross domestic product; USD, U.S. dollars. The start of the Ebola outbreak for each country is indicated by the vertical line.
Fig 2
Fig 2. The cumulative effect on GDP per capita accrued by year 3 post-EVD outbreak: Main estimates versus sets of estimates generated from three types of robustness tests.
DRC, Democratic Republic of the Congo; EVD, Ebola virus disease; GDP, gross domestic product.
Fig 3
Fig 3. Function describing the relationship between Ebola cases and GDP impact.
DRC, Democratic Republic of the Congo; GDP, gross domestic product.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

References

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