Drought, armed conflict and population mortality in Somalia, 2014-2018: A statistical analysis

Abstract

During 2010-2012, extreme food insecurity and famine in Somalia were estimated to account for 256,000 deaths. Since 2014 Somalia has experienced recurrent below-average rainfall, with consecutive failed rains in late 2016 and 2017 leading to large-scale drought, displacement and epidemics. We wished to estimate mortality across Somalia from 2014 to 2018, and measure the excess death toll attributable to the 2017-2018 drought-triggered crisis. We used a statistical approach akin to small-area estimation, and relying solely on existing data. We identified and re-analysed 91 household surveys conducted at the district level and estimating the crude (CDR) and under 5 years death rate (U5DR) over retrospective periods of 3-4 months. We captured datasets of candidate predictors of mortality with availability by district and month. We also reconstructed population denominators by district-month combining alternative census estimates and displacement data. We combined these data inputs into predictive models to estimate CDR and U5DR and combined the predictions with population estimates to project death tolls. Excess mortality was estimated by constructing counterfactual no-crisis scenarios. Between 2013 and 2018, Somalia's population increased from 12.0 to 13.5 million, and internally displaced people or returnees reached 20% of the population. We estimated an excess death toll of 44,700 in the most likely counterfactual scenario, and as high as 163,800 in a pessimistic scenario. By contrast to 2010-2012, excess deaths were widespread across Somalia, including central and northern regions. This analysis suggests that the 2017-2018 crisis had a lower, albeit still very substantial, mortality impact than its 2010-2012 predecessor. Despite modest elevations in death rate, crisis conditions were widespread and affected a population of millions. Humanitarian response to drought-related crises in Somalia needs to be strengthened, target the most vulnerable and emphasise very early interventions.

Fig 1. Rainfall levels compared to the historical average (dotted line) and number of people newly displaced (bars), by region of Somalia, 2016–2018.

See Methods for data sources.

Fig 2. Schematic of estimation steps and required data inputs.

Fig 3. Schematic of mortality survey availability.

Fig 4. Evolution of total estimated population, by source.

UNPESS = United Nations Population Estimation Sample Survey. WHO = World Health Organization.

Fig 5

Trends in the estimated crude death rate (top panel) and under 5 years death rate (bottom panel). Actual estimates, i.e. under observed conditions, are shown with a dotted solid orange line (point estimate) and orange shaded area (95%confidence interval). The green lines indicate counterfactual levels (most likely scenario: Solid green line; reasonable worst-case and best-case scenario: Dashed green lines).

Fig 6. Correlation between Integrated Phase Classification (IPC) projections (early 2017) and estimated excess death rate among all ages (2017–2018), by region.