Skip to main page content
U.S. flag

An official website of the United States government

Dot gov

The .gov means it’s official.
Federal government websites often end in .gov or .mil. Before sharing sensitive information, make sure you’re on a federal government site.

Https

The site is secure.
The https:// ensures that you are connecting to the official website and that any information you provide is encrypted and transmitted securely.

Access keys NCBI Homepage MyNCBI Homepage Main Content Main Navigation
. 2022 Sep 1;98(1163):700-704.
doi: 10.1136/postgradmedj-2020-139491.

Prognostic significance of competition ratios in surgical specialty training selection

Katie Mellor  1 , David B Robinson  1 , Oliver Luton  1 , Osian P James  1 , Arfon G M T Powell  1   2 , Luke Hopkins  1 , Sarah Hemington-Gorse  1   3 , Richard J Egan  1   3 , Wyn G Lewis  1
Affiliations

Prognostic significance of competition ratios in surgical specialty training selection

Katie Mellor et al. Postgrad Med J. .

Abstract

Background: A competition ratio (CR) indicates the ratio of total applications for a training post when compared with numbers of specialty posts available. This study aimed to evaluate CRs' influence on National Training Number (NTN) selection in a single UK Statutory Education Body.

Methods: Consecutive core surgical trainees numbering 154 (105 men, 49 women; median years since graduation: four) were studied over a 6-year period. Annual specialty specific CRs were obtained from Health Education England's website, and primary outcome measure was UK NTN appointment.

Results: Overall NTN appointment was 45.5%. Median CR was 2.36; range Oral & Maxillofacial Surgery 0.70 (2020) to Neurosurgery 22.0 (2020). Multivariable analysis revealed that NTN success was associated with: CR (OR 0.46, p=0.003), a single scientific publication (OR 6.25, p=0.001), cohort year (2019, OR 12.65, p=0.003) and Universal Annual Review of Competence Progression Outcome 1 (OR 45.24, p<0.001). CRs predicted NTN appointment with a Youden index defined critical ratio of 4.42; 28.6% (n=8) versus 49.2% (n=62), p=0.018.

Conclusion: CRs displayed 30-fold variation, with CRs below 4.42 associated with twofold better NTN promotion, but strong clinical competence and academic reach again emerged as the principal drivers of career advancement.

PubMed Disclaimer