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Review
. 2023 Mar 2;10(1):145-168.
doi: 10.3934/publichealth.2023012. eCollection 2023.

Sources, diffusion and prediction in COVID-19 pandemic: lessons learned to face next health emergency

Mario Coccia  1
Affiliations
Review

Sources, diffusion and prediction in COVID-19 pandemic: lessons learned to face next health emergency

Mario Coccia. AIMS Public Health. .

Abstract

Scholars and experts argue that future pandemics and/or epidemics are inevitable events, and the problem is not whether they will occur, but when a new health emergency will emerge. In this uncertain scenario, one of the most important questions is an accurate prevention, preparedness and prediction for the next pandemic. The main goal of this study is twofold: first, the clarification of sources and factors that may trigger pandemic threats; second, the examination of prediction models of on-going pandemics, showing pros and cons. Results, based on in-depth systematic review, show the vital role of environmental factors in the spread of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19), and many limitations of the epidemiologic models of prediction because of the complex interactions between the new viral agent SARS-CoV-2, environment and society that have generated variants and sub-variants with rapid transmission. The insights here are, whenever possible, to clarify these aspects associated with public health in order to provide lessons learned of health policy that may reduce risks of emergence and diffusion of new pandemics having negative societal impact.

Keywords: COVID-19 pandemic; compartmental models; crisis management; environmental factors; epidemiologic models; health policy; infectious diseases; outlook; policy responses; preparedness; public health; surveillance.

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Conflict of interest statement

Conflict of interests: I declare that I am the sole author of this manuscript, and I have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could influence the work reported in this paper. This study has no funders.

Figures

Figure 1.
Figure 1.. Infected people on population density per km2, considering the groups of cities with high or low air pollution (high particulate compounds emissions in the atmosphere). Note: Coccia reveals that diffusion of COVID-19 is higher in cities with high air pollution.
Figure 2.
Figure 2.. Trends of COVID-19 deaths in Italian regions (Veneto and Piemonte) with effective and non-effective contract tracing systems. Source: Benati and Coccia .
Figure 3.
Figure 3.. How the increase of government effectiveness between countries can support higher levels of vaccination. Source: Benati and Coccia .
Figure 4.
Figure 4.. Factors that increase the opportunities for a pandemic virus to emerge and spread.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

References

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