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. 2023 Jun:136:209-227.
doi: 10.1016/j.tranpol.2023.04.002. Epub 2023 Apr 11.

Interaction between travel restriction policies and the spread of COVID-19

Xin Meng  1 , Mingxue Guo  1 , Ziyou Gao  1 , Liujiang Kang  1
Affiliations

Interaction between travel restriction policies and the spread of COVID-19

Xin Meng et al. Transp Policy (Oxf). 2023 Jun.

Abstract

To investigate the interaction between travel restriction policies and the spread of COVID-19, we collected data on human mobility trends, population density, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita, daily new confirmed cases (or deaths), and the total confirmed cases (or deaths), as well as governmental travel restriction policies from 33 countries. The data collection period was from April 2020 to February 2022, resulting in 24,090 data points. We then developed a structural causal model to describe the causal relationship between these variables. Using the Dowhy method to solve the developed model, we found several significant results that passed the refutation test. Specifically, travel restriction policies played an important role in slowing the spread of COVID-19 until May 2021. International travel controls and school closures had an impact on reducing the spread of the pandemic beyond the impact of travel restrictions. Additionally, May 2021 marked a turning point in the spread of COVID-19 as it became more infectious, but the mortality rate gradually decreased. The impact of travel restriction policies on human mobility and the pandemic diminished over time. Overall, the cancellation of public events and restrictions on public gatherings were more effective than other travel restriction policies. Our findings provide insights into the effects of travel restriction policies and travel behavioral changes on the spread of COVID-19, while controlling for informational and other confounding variables. This experience can be applied in the future to respond to emergent infectious diseases.

Keywords: COVID-19; Human mobility; Structural causal model; Travel restriction policies.

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Figures

Fig. 1
Fig. 1
The causal relationship among mentioned variables.
Fig. 2
Fig. 2
The changes in total confirmed cases (left) and deaths (right) per million population.
Fig. 3
Fig. 3
The changes in travel restriction policies.
Fig. 4
Fig. 4
The changes in human mobility trends.
Fig. 5
Fig. 5
The total effects of HCC or HCD on TRPs (dividing by the value of the highest status).
Fig. 6
Fig. 6
The total effects of HCC or HCD on HMTs (absolute values).
Fig. 7
Fig. 7
The direct and indirect effects of HCC or HCD on HMTs (absolute values).
Fig. 8
Fig. 8
The direct effects of TRPs on HMTs (For better presentation, the data in the graph are the absolute values of the actual values multiplied by 100.).
Fig. 9
Fig. 9
The indirect effects of TRPs on NCC (left) or NCD (right).
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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