The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on global trade-embodied carbon emissions

Abstract

We evaluate the response of global supply chains to carbon emissions through compiling multi-regional input-output (MRIO) models for import and export shocks in 14 countries/territories dominated by the COVID-19 crisis. Instead of traditional production-based inventories, we achieve CO₂ emissions inventories based on intermediate inputs and final consumption to analyze the connected environmental impacts. In addition, we adopt the available data up to date to construct inventories of carbon emissions involved in imports and exports from different sectors. The results show that global carbon emissions could be decreased by 6.01% during the COVID-19, while export carbon emissions remained basically unchanged. As a result, imported carbon emissions fell by 5.2%, with the energy products sector most affected by the pandemic. Transport sector witnessed 18.42% carbon emission reduction. The impact of developing countries with a large proportion of resource-based industries is comparatively higher than that of developed countries with the technological advantage. International trade plays a crucial role in the choice of supply chain partners to control carbon emissions. Building a sustainable supply chain and reducing the "trade carbon deficit" between countries/regions requires the coordination of all departments of each country/region to promote the trade of energy-saving products, environmental protection services and environmental services.

Keywords: COVID-19; Climate change; Industrial structure; Supply chain carbon emissions.

Graphical abstract

Fig. 1

a) comparison of carbon emissions from the supply chain between 2019 and the period of the COVID-19 pandemic (red and blue area refer to increased and decreased carbon emissions, respectively.), b) regional carbon emission changes between 2019 and the period of the COVID-19 pandemic. (For interpretation of the references to colour in this figure legend, the reader is referred to the Web version of this article.)

Fig. 2

Carbon emissions for global export(a), import(b) and sectors(c-f) in 2019 and during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Fig. 3

The percentage of total carbon emissions by import and export (a), net trade(b) and various sectors(c-l) from the supply chain influenced during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Fig. 4

Analysis of carbon emission intensity coefficient matrix (a) and index decomposition analysis of emissions embodied in trade of import and export and total output of each industry in each region (b–d).