Animal board invited review: Opportunities and challenges in using GWP* to report the impact of ruminant livestock on global temperature change

Abstract

Ruminant livestock is a large contributor of CH₄ emissions globally_. Assessing how this CH₄ and other greenhouse gases (GHG) from livestock contribute to anthropogenic climate change is key to understanding their role in achieving any temperature targets. The climate impacts of livestock, as well as other sectors or products/services, are generally expressed as CO₂-equivalents using 100-year Global Warming Potentials (GWP₁₀₀). However, the GWP₁₀₀ cannot be used to translate emission pathways of short-lived climate pollutants (SLCPs) emissions to their temperature outcomes. A key limitation of handling long- and short-lived gases in the same manner is revealed in the context of any potential temperature stabilisation goals: to achieve this outcome, emissions of long-lived gases must decline to net-zero, but this is not the case for SLCPs. A recent alternative metric, GWP* (so-called 'GWP-star'), has been proposed to overcome these concerns. GWP* allows for simple appraisals of warming over time for emission series of different GHGs that may not be obvious if using pulse-emission metrics (i.e. GWP₁₀₀). In this article, we explore some of the strengths and limitations of GWP* for reporting the contribution of ruminant livestock systems to global temperature change. A number of case studies are used to illustrate the potential use of the GWP* metric to, for example, understand the current contribution of different ruminant livestock production systems to global warming, appraise how different production systems or mitigations compare (having a temporal element), and seeing how possible emission pathways driven by changes in production, emissions intensity and gas composition show different impacts over time. We suggest that for some contexts, particularly if trying to directly infer contributions to additional warming, GWP* or similar approaches can provide important insight that would not be gained from conventional GWP₁₀₀ reporting.

Keywords: Climate change; Global Warming; Greenhouse gas emissions; Methane; Net-zero.