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. 2023 Apr 26;10(1):238.
doi: 10.1038/s41597-023-02144-9.

Very High Resolution Projections over Italy under different CMIP5 IPCC scenarios

Mario Raffa  1 , Marianna Adinolfi  1 , Alfredo Reder  1 , Gian Franco Marras  2 , Marco Mancini  3 , Gabriella Scipione  2 , Monia Santini  4 , Paola Mercogliano  5
Affiliations

Very High Resolution Projections over Italy under different CMIP5 IPCC scenarios

Mario Raffa et al. Sci Data. .

Abstract

This paper introduces VHR-PRO_IT (Very High-Resolution PROjections for ITaly), an open access hourly climate projection with a resolution of ≃2.2 km (i.e., Convection Permitting Scale) up to 2050, covering the Italian peninsula and some neighbouring areas. VHR-PRO_IT is produced within the Highlander project ( https://highlanderproject.eu/ ) by dynamically downscaling the Italy8km-CM climate projection (spatial resolution ≃8 km; output frequency = 6 h; driven CMIP5 GCM = CMCC-CM) with the Regional Climate Model COSMO-CLM under the IPCC RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. It covers the 60-year period 1989-2050. VHR-PRO_IT is intended for research purposes in the field of climate studies. For example, it may be included in the ongoing activities to clarify the added value of running climate simulation at the convection-permitting scale.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare no competing interests.

Figures

Fig. 1
Fig. 1
Computational domains of VHR-PRO_IT simulation and its driving model ITALY8km-CM.
Fig. 2
Fig. 2
Surface height with highlighted Northern Italy, Central Italy and Southern Italy.
Fig. 3
Fig. 3
Model performance analysis over (a) northern, (b) central and (c) southern Italy. Each plot shows data as pairs of normalised precipitation bias against normalised temperature bias for VHR-PRO_IT, Italy8km-CM, and the Euro-CORDEX members with their Ensemble Mean (EM). Point (1,1) represents the observations as the target. Euro-CORDEX models are grouped according to GCM (same colours for each GCM) and RCM (same symbol for each RCM).
Fig. 4
Fig. 4
Model consistency analysis over (a,b) northern, (c,d) central and (e,f) southern Italy under (a–e) RCP4.5 and (b–f) RCP8.5 scenarios. Each plot shows data as pairs of normalised precipitation changes against normalised temperature changes for VHR-PRO_IT, Italy8km-CM, and Euro-CORDEX members. Point (1,1) represents the Euro-CORDEX Ensemble Mean (EM) as the target. Euro-CORDEX models are grouped according to GCM (same colours for each GMC) and RCM (same symbol for each RCM).
Fig. 5
Fig. 5
Summer hourly indices over Italy for (a–e) GRIPHO and (b–f) VHR-PRO_IT: (a,b) hourly precipitation intensity (mm/h), (c,d) wet-hour frequency, (e,f) heavy hourly precipitation (mm/h) events.
Fig. 6
Fig. 6
Mean change of the indices analysed over 2021–2050 for the summer hourly precipitation (reference = 1989–2018 obtained as historical for 1989–2005 + RCP8.5 for 2006–2018): (a,b) intensity change (percentage), (c,d) frequency change (absolute) and (e-f) heavy precipitation change (percentage). The results are obtained under (a–e) RCP4.5 and (b–f) RCP8.5 scenarios.
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References

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