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. 2023 Nov:3:100179.
doi: 10.1016/j.health.2023.100179. Epub 2023 Apr 20.

A caputo fractional order epidemic model for evaluating the effectiveness of high-risk quarantine and vaccination strategies on the spread of COVID-19

Morufu Oyedunsi Olayiwola  1 , Adedapo Ismaila Alaje  1 , Akeem Yunus Olarewaju  1 , Kamilu Adewale Adedokun  1
Affiliations

A caputo fractional order epidemic model for evaluating the effectiveness of high-risk quarantine and vaccination strategies on the spread of COVID-19

Morufu Oyedunsi Olayiwola et al. Healthc Anal (N Y). 2023 Nov.

Abstract

The recent global Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) threat to the human race requires research on preventing its reemergence without affecting socio-economic factors. This study proposes a fractional-order mathematical model to analyze the impact of high-risk quarantine and vaccination on COVID-19 transmission. The proposed model is used to analyze real-life COVID-19 data to develop and analyze the solutions and their feasibilities. Numerical simulations study the high-risk quarantine and vaccination strategies and show that both strategies effectively reduce the virus prevalence, but their combined application is more effective. We also demonstrate that their effectiveness varies with the volatile rate of change in the system's distribution. The results are analyzed using Caputo fractional order and presented graphically and extensively analyzed to highlight potent ways of curbing the virus.

Keywords: COVID-19; Caputo-derivative; High-risk quarantine; Homotopy perturbation method; Laplace Adomian decomposition method; Vaccination.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.

Figures

Fig. 1
Fig. 1
Flowchart of the methodology.
Fig. 2
Fig. 2
Schematic diagram of the proposed model.
Fig. 3
Fig. 3
Comparison plots of HPM and LADM on the model classes.
Fig. 4
Fig. 4
Reaction of the four population class to vaccination at time variations.
Fig. 5
Fig. 5
Impact of high risk quarantine on the model classes.
Fig. 6
Fig. 6
Fractional order dynamics of vaccination and high risk quarantine on recovered population.
Fig. 7
Fig. 7
Shows the reaction of SIR population class to control strategies at a Caputo classical order α=1 and fractional order α=0.75.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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