Development of a risk score to predict portal vein tumor thrombosis in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma

Abstract

Background: Portal vein tumor thrombosis (PVTT) is a common complication of hepatocellular carcinoma and is one of the most negative prognostic factors. The management of patients with PVTT is challenging. The aim of the study was to develop a score predictive of tumor thrombosis.

Methods: Data from a large cohort of 2243 hepatocellular carcinoma patients (all stages) recorded in the Progetto Epatocarcinoma Campania (January 2013-April 2021) database were analyzed. To construct the score, univariate generalized estimated equation models, the bootstrap approach for internal validation, and a regression coefficient-based scoring system were used.

Results: PVTT (any location) was found in 14.4% of cases and was related to shorter survival. Males, younger patients, and symptomatic cases were more prevalent among the PVTT group. At multivariate analysis, size ≥5 cm, massive or infiltrative hepatocellular carcinoma growth, and alpha-fetoprotein ≥400 ng/mL were significantly associated with PVTT. A risk prediction score of PVTT based on eight variables was developed. Using a continuous score, the risk was associated with an odds ratio (OR) of 1.30 (1.27-1.34; P < 0.001). Considering a dichotomous score >8 versus a score ≤8 the OR for PVTT was 11.33 (8.55-15.00; P < 0.001).

Conclusion: The risk score for PVTT might be useful for clinicians to optimize hepatocellular carcinoma management by picking out patients with more aggressive cancers and higher mortality rates. Prospective validation of the score is needed before its application in daily clinical practice.

Fig. 1.

OS according to presence or absence of PVTT (Kaplan–Meier method). OS, overall survival; PVTT, portal vein tumor thrombosis.

Fig. 2.

OS by presence or absence of PVTT and type 2 diabetes at baseline (Kaplan–Meier method). OS, overall survival; PVTT, portal vein tumor thrombosis.