Identify Breast Cancer Risk Factors Using the Gail Assessment Model in Iraq

Abstract

The prevalence of breast cancer (BC) has increased significantly in the last 50 years worldwide. This increase may be because more women today have mammograms and, as a result, are more known to have cancers. At the same time, the theory is growing that many other factors contribute to the increase in cancer rates. The current study tried applying the Gail assessment model to identify hormonal and familial risk factors that may be important for BC in Iraq. Patients aged 30 years and over with all known risk factors for BC were selected for the study group. The selected patients were divided into two groups. Group 1: Patients diagnosed with non-proliferative lesions who have had a breast biopsy performed at least three years before; Group 2: Controlled patients. The individual risk of BC for patients in groups 1 and 2 was calculated using the Gale model. In addition to groups 1 and 2, we identified two other groups. Group 3: Groups 1 and 2 of patients without BC at the end of the 3-year follow-up period; Group 4: Patients who have undergone BC surgery. Multiple regression tests assessed all known risk factors in groups 3 and 4 to determine the risk factors for the development of BC in Iraq. The results show that Gail's assessment model is a reliable example of calculating the risk of developing BC. The model results show that the significant risk factor for BC in Iraq is not hormonal but genetic or familial. Current research also shows that the risk of developing BC increases significantly with age. It was concluded that there are genetic factors, and the risk of developing BC increases with age, but hormonal features do not cause a significant increase in risk. Identifying risk factors in causing disease in the community makes it possible to prepare codified plans to control and treat the disease.

Keywords: Breast cancer; Gail Model; Iraq; Risk factors of BC.