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. 2023 Oct;32(7):835-844.
doi: 10.1177/09636625231166255. Epub 2023 May 4.

Dunning-Kruger effect and flat-earthers: An exploratory analysis

Jose Luis Arroyo-Barrigüete  1 , Carlos Bellón Núñez-Mera  1 , Jesús Labrador Fernández  1 , Victor Luis De Nicolas  1
Affiliations

Dunning-Kruger effect and flat-earthers: An exploratory analysis

Jose Luis Arroyo-Barrigüete et al. Public Underst Sci. 2023 Oct.

Abstract

This article aims to analyze the factors influencing belief in a flat Earth. We focus on Spain, a country that sadly has some of the most relevant figures on this topic in the Spanish-speaking world. After a qualitative analysis of YouTube videos on the main channels on the subject, a survey was carried out on 1252 individuals. The results point to two conclusions. First is the presence of a considerable Dunning-Kruger effect among flat-earthers. There is a significant negative correlation between science literacy-overall and practically all its dimensions-and overconfidence in science in this group. The second, evaluated through a regression tree, confirms that the interaction of low scientific literacy and overconfidence is highly relevant in explaining the belief in a flat earth. Neither factor alone is determinant, but the combination of the two (low scientific literacy and high overconfidence) leads to high levels of flat earth belief.

Keywords: Dunning–Kruger effect; flat earth belief; overconfidence; scientific literacy.

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Conflict of interest statement

Declaration of conflicting interestsThe author(s) declared no potential conflicts of interest with respect to the research, authorship, and/or publication of this article.

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