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. 2023 May 9;13(1):7512.
doi: 10.1038/s41598-023-34349-8.

Analysis of the correlation between climatic variables and Dengue cases in the city of Alagoinhas/BA

Marcos Batista Figueredo #  1 , Roberto Luiz Souza Monteiro #  2   3 , Alexandre do Nascimento Silva #  4 , José Roberto de Araújo Fontoura #  2 , Andreia Rita da Silva #  2 , Carolina Aparecida Pereira Alves #  2
Affiliations

Analysis of the correlation between climatic variables and Dengue cases in the city of Alagoinhas/BA

Marcos Batista Figueredo et al. Sci Rep. .

Abstract

The Aedes aegypti mosquito is the main vector of dengue and is a synanthropic insect and due to its anthropophilic nature, it has specific reproductive needs. In addition to that, it also needs tropical regions that provide climate-prone conditions that favor vector development. In this article, we propose the cross-correlation analysis between the climatic variables air temperature, relative humidity, weekly average precipitation and dengue cases in the period from 2017 to early 2021 in the municipality of Alagoinhas, Bahia, Brazil. To do so, we apply the trend-free cross-correlation, [Formula: see text], being a generalization of the fluctuation analysis without trend, where we calculate the cross correlation between time series to establish the influence of these variables on the occurrence of dengue disease. The results obtained here were a moderate correlation between relative humidity and the incidence of dengue cases, and a low correlation for relative air temperature and precipitation. However, the predominant factor in the incidence of dengue cases in the city of Alagoinhas is relative humidity and not air temperature and precipitation.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare no competing interests.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
The figure illustrates the difficulty of perceiving a correlation between variables without using advanced techniques such as ρdcca.
Figure 2
Figure 2
The figure shows the rainfall variation in the municipality of Alagoinhas between 2017 and 2020.
Figure 3
Figure 3
The ρDCCA between temperature, humidity and precipitation and dengue cases show that there is a positive correlation between humidity and dengue cases and a negative correlation with temperature and precipitation.
Figure 4
Figure 4
Behavior of ρDCCA in relation to relative humidity showing the positive correlation between two params.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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