An Algorithm to Predict the Lack of Pregnancy after Intrauterine Insemination in Infertile Patients

Abstract

Increasing intrauterine insemination (IUI) success rates is essential to improve the quality of care for infertile couples. Additionally, straight referral of couples with less probability of achieving a pregnancy through IUI to more complex methods such as in vitro fertilization is important to reduce costs and the time to pregnancy. The aim of the present study is to prospectively evaluate the threshold values for different parameters related to success in intrauterine insemination in order to provide better reproductive counseling to infertile couples, moreover, to generate an algorithm based on male and female parameters to predict whether the couple is suitable for achieving pregnancy using IUI. For that, one hundred ninety-seven infertile couples undergoing 409 consecutive cycles of intrauterine insemination during a two-year period were included. The first year served as a definition of the parameters and thresholds related to pregnancy achievement, while the second year was used to validate the consistency of these parameters. Subsequently, those parameters that remained consistent throughout two years were included in a generalized estimating equation model (GEE) to determine their significance in predicting pregnancy achievement. Parameters significantly associated with the lack of pregnancy through IUI and included in the GEE were (p < 0.05): (i) male age > 41 years; (ii) ejaculate sperm count < 51.79 x 10⁶ sperm; (iii) swim-up alkaline Comet > 59%; (iv) female body mass index > 45 kg/m²; (v) duration of infertility (>84 months), and (vi) basal LH levels > 27.28 mUI/mL. The application of these limits could provide a pregnancy prognosis to couples before undergoing intrauterine insemination, therefore avoiding it in couples with low chances of success. The retrospective application of these parameters to the same cohort of patients would have increased the pregnancy rate by up to 30%.

Keywords: Comet assay; intrauterine insemination; pregnancy; prognosis.