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. 2023 Apr 25;13(1):6293.
doi: 10.1038/s41598-023-32722-1.

The increase in intensity and frequency of surface air temperature extremes throughout the western South Atlantic coast

Fábio H C Sanches  1 , Fernando R Martins  2 , William R P Conti  2 , Ronaldo A Christofoletti  2
Affiliations

The increase in intensity and frequency of surface air temperature extremes throughout the western South Atlantic coast

Fábio H C Sanches et al. Sci Rep. .

Abstract

The climate is changing. At this stage, it is important to specify an 'extreme' climate and identify patterns that indicate its potential harm worldwide, including the coastal zones. Herein, we considered extremes based on the "Peaks Over Threshold" method from the "Extreme Value Theory". We looked after geographical patterns of surface air temperature (SAT) extremes (e.g., Tmax, Tmin, daily temperature range (DTR), and inter-daily temperature range) over the last 40 years throughout the Brazilian coast. Overall, we found a trend increase in intensity and frequency, but the duration was barely affected. The latitudinal pattern of extremes and the temperatures considered extremes followed the settled perception that areas in higher latitudes will be more affected by the extent of warming. Additionally, the seasonal pattern of DTR demonstrated to be a good approach to make inferences about air mass changes, but joint analyses on extremes with other atmospheric variables are desirable. Given the potential effects of extreme climates on society and natural systems over the world, our study highlights the urge for action to mitigate the effects of the increase in SAT in coastal zones.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare no competing interests.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Overall statically significant results from trend analysis to all 5 MEOW in the last 40 years. The results are presented to the following response variables: Daily maximum temperatures (Tmax); Daily minimum temperatures (Tmin); and Daily temperature range (DTR), with their respective extreme indexes that indicate intensity (Exceedances over the threshold series), frequency (both Time elapsed between consecutive extreme occurrences and events, as well as the Number of extremes per year), and duration (Number of days per extreme event).
Figure 2
Figure 2
Overall statically significant results from trend analysis to all 5 MEOW in the last 40 years. The results are presented to the following response variables: positive inter-daily Tmax range (+ IDTmaxR); positive inter-daily Tmin range (+ IDTminR); negative inter-daily Tmax range (− IDTmaxR); and Negative inter-daily Tmin range (− IDTminR), with their respective extreme indexes that indicate intensity (Exceedances over the threshold series), frequency (both time elapsed between consecutive extreme occurrences and events, as well as the number of extremes per year), and duration (Number of days per extreme event).
Figure 3
Figure 3
Overall seasonal frequency of extreme occurrence and events from all 5 MEOW in the last 40 years. The results are presented to the following response variables: daily maximum temperatures (Tmax); daily minimum temperatures (Tmin); and daily temperature range (DTR).
Figure 4
Figure 4
Overall seasonal frequency of extreme occurrence and events from all 5 MEOW in the last 40 years. The results are presented to the following response variables: positive inter-daily Tmax range (+ IDTmaxR); positive inter-daily Tmin range (+ IDTminR); negative inter-daily Tmax range (− IDTmaxR); and negative inter-daily Tmin range (− IDTminR).
Figure 5
Figure 5
Overall monthly overview of temperatures considered extremes from all 5 MEOW in the last 40 years. The results are presented to the following response variables: daily maximum temperatures (Tmax); daily minimum temperatures (Tmin); daily temperature range (DTR); positive inter-daily Tmax range (+ IDTmaxR); positive inter-daily Tmin range (+ IDTminR); negative inter-daily Tmax range (− IDTmaxR); and negative inter-daily Tmin range (− IDTminR).
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