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. 2023 May 8:15:583-599.
doi: 10.2147/CLEP.S402718. eCollection 2023.

Temporal Trends of Inflammatory Bowel Disease Burden in China from 1990 to 2030 with Comparisons to Japan, South Korea, the European Union, the United States of America, and the World

Tian Ma  1   2   3 , Meng Wan  1   2   3 , Guanqun Liu  1   2   3 , Xiuli Zuo  1   2   3 , Xiaorong Yang  1   2   3   4 , Xiaoyun Yang  1   2   3   4
Affiliations

Temporal Trends of Inflammatory Bowel Disease Burden in China from 1990 to 2030 with Comparisons to Japan, South Korea, the European Union, the United States of America, and the World

Tian Ma et al. Clin Epidemiol. .

Abstract

Purpose: To identify and predict the epidemiological burden and trends of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) in China and compare them globally.

Methods: We collected incidence, prevalence, deaths, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and the age-standardized rates (ASRs) of IBD from 1990 to 2019 in China, four developed countries and the world, from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. The average annual percentage change (AAPC) was calculated to evaluate the temporal trends.

Results: From 1990 to 2019, the numbers of incident and prevalent cases, age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), and age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR) of IBD increased in China, regardless of gender and age; decreased YLLs and increased YLDs caused a stable number of DALYs; the age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) and age-standardized DALY rate (ASDR) decreased. In 2019, the ASIR, ASPR, ASMR, and ASDR were 3.01/100,000 person-years (/100,000) (95% UI: 2.59, 3.50), 47.06/100,000 (95% UI: 40.05, 54.99), 0.30/100,000 (95% UI: 0.24, 0.35), and 13.1/100,000 (95% UI: 10.29, 16.31), respectively; almost all disease burden data were higher in males. In 2017, the ASDR in different socio-demographic index provinces ranged from 24.62/100,000 (95% UI: 16.95, 33.81) to 63.97/100,000 (95% UI: 44.61, 91.48). When compared globally, the ASIR and ASPR in China had opposite trends and the highest AAPCs. In 2019, the ASIR and ASPR in China were in the middle of the world and lower than in some developed countries. The numbers and ASRs of incidence, prevalence, and DALYs were expected to increase by 2030.

Conclusion: The IBD burden in China significantly increased from 1990 to 2019 and was expected to rise further by 2030. China had the world's opposite and most dramatic trends in ASIR and ASPR from 1990 to 2019. Strategies should be adjusted to adapt to the significantly increased disease burden.

Keywords: China; disease burden; inflammatory bowel disease; projection; temporal trend.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors report no conflicts of interest in this work.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
The numbers and age-standardized rates of incidence (A), deaths (B), prevalence (C), DALYs (D), YLLs (E), and YLDs (E) of IBD in China from 1990 to 2019.
Figure 2
Figure 2
The AAPC of burden rate of IBD by age and indicators related to disease burden in China from 1990 to 2019 (A). The gradual incidence rate (B), mortality rate (C), and DALY rate (D) of IBD by age and gender in China from 1990 to 2019. The gradual change in color from green to red reflects the annual trend of the burden rate of IBD in each age group and gender from 1990 to 2019.
Figure 3
Figure 3
The national numbers and age-standardized rates of incidence (A), deaths (B), prevalence (C), YLLs (D), YLDs (E), and DALYs (F) of IBD by age and gender in 2019.
Figure 4
Figure 4
The geographical distribution of the ASDR of IBD in 2017 in China (A). The ASDR of IBD for 34 province-level administrative units by different SDI groups in 2017 (B).
Figure 5
Figure 5
The temporal trends of age-standardized burden rates from 1990 to 2019 in China, South Korea, Japan, the European Union, the USA, and worldwide.
Figure 6
Figure 6
The geographical variation in IBD of ASIR (A), AAPC in ASIR (B), ASDR (C), and AAPC in ASDR (D) across countries and regions in 2019.
Figure 7
Figure 7
The temporal trends of the national disease burden of IBD from 1990 to 2019, and projections until 2030. Age-standardized incidence rate (A), age-standardized mortality rate (B), age-standardized prevalence rate (C), age-standardized DALY rate (D), and numbers of incident cases, deaths, prevalent cases, and DALYs (E).
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