Estimation of High Blood Lead Levels Among Children in Georgia: An Application of Bayesian Analysis

Abstract

In Georgia, children in high-risk counties are at increased risk for lead exposure. Those children and others in high-risk groups, such as families receiving Medicaid and Peach Care for Kids (i.e., health coverage for children in low-income families), are screened for blood lead levels (BLLs). Such screening, however, might not include all children at high risk for having BLLs above the reference levels (≥5 μg/dL) in the state. In our study, Bayesian methods were used to estimate the predictive density of the number of children <6 years with BLLs of 5-9 μg/dL in a targeted county from each of five selected regions of Georgia. Furthermore, the estimated mean number of children with BLLs of 5-9 μg/dL in each targeted county, along with its 95% credible interval, were calculated. The model revealed likely underreporting of some children <6 years with BLLs of 5-9 μg/dL in counties of Georgia. Further investigation might help reduce underreporting and better protect children who are at risk for lead poisoning.

FIGURE 1

Plot for the Predictive Density of All Children <6 Years With Blood Lead Levels (BLLs) of 5–9 μg/dL in the Targeted Counties in the West and Central Regions of Georgia, 2015 Note. The observed value of children with BLLs of 5–9 μg/dL in the targeted county in the West region was 14 among 1,587 children tested. The observed value of children with BLLs of 5–9 μg/dL in the targeted county of the Central region was 1 among 170 children tested.