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. 2023 Aug;38(4):541-548.
doi: 10.1016/j.virs.2023.05.008. Epub 2023 May 19.

Development of PREDAC-H1pdm to model the antigenic evolution of influenza A/(H1N1) pdm09 viruses

Mi Liu  1 , Jingze Liu  2 , Wenjun Song  3 , Yousong Peng  4 , Xiao Ding  2 , Lizong Deng  2 , Taijiao Jiang  5
Affiliations

Development of PREDAC-H1pdm to model the antigenic evolution of influenza A/(H1N1) pdm09 viruses

Mi Liu et al. Virol Sin. 2023 Aug.

Abstract

The Influenza A (H1N1) pdm09 virus caused a global pandemic in 2009 and has circulated seasonally ever since. As the continual genetic evolution of hemagglutinin in this virus leads to antigenic drift, rapid identification of antigenic variants and characterization of the antigenic evolution are needed. In this study, we developed PREDAC-H1pdm, a model to predict antigenic relationships between H1N1pdm viruses and identify antigenic clusters for post-2009 pandemic H1N1 strains. Our model performed well in predicting antigenic variants, which was helpful in influenza surveillance. By mapping the antigenic clusters for H1N1pdm, we found that substitutions on the Sa epitope were common for H1N1pdm, whereas for the former seasonal H1N1, substitutions on the Sb epitope were more common in antigenic evolution. Additionally, the localized epidemic pattern of H1N1pdm was more obvious than that of the former seasonal H1N1, which could make vaccine recommendation more sophisticated. Overall, the antigenic relationship prediction model we developed provides a rapid determination method for identifying antigenic variants, and the further analysis of evolutionary and epidemic characteristics can facilitate vaccine recommendations and influenza surveillance for H1N1pdm.

Keywords: Antigenic evolution; Antigenic relationship prediction; H1N1pdm virus; Vaccine recommendation.

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Figures

Fig. 1
Fig. 1
Development of PREDAC-H1pdm. A Workflow of the PREDAC-H1pdm method. B Epitope definitions on HA1 protein for former seasonal H1N1 (left, 1RU7) and H1N1pdm (right, 3LZG). C The Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve of initial and modified antigenic relationship prediction models.
Fig. 2
Fig. 2
Antigenic and genetic evolution of human influenza A (H1N1) pdm09 viruses. A Inferred antigenic correlation network of H1N1pdm viruses. B Mapping of antigenic clusters on time-scaled tree of the HA1 region of the H1N1 HA nucleotide sequences. C Distribution of antigenic clusters by year.
Fig. 3
Fig. 3
Antigenic evolution in different regions. Dynamic changes in the percentage of antigenic clusters from Jan. 2016 to July. 2022 were recorded monthly. Different antigenic clusters were colored as in Fig. 2. The number of sampled sequences was shown in gray bars.
Fig. 4
Fig. 4
Percentage of antigenic variant strains. The percentage of antigenic variant strains in each continent was mapped by influenza seasons. The percentage was calculated as the percentage of antigenic variant strains in a given season, compared to the last season's recommended vaccine strain.
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