Prediction model of anastomotic leakage after anterior resection for rectal cancer-based on nomogram and multivariate analysis with 1995 patients

Abstract

Background: Postoperative anastomotic leakage for rectal cancer shows higher morbidity with grievous concomitant symptoms. Accurate assessment of the incidence of anastomotic leakage, multivariate analysis, and establishment of a scientific prediction model can be useful to dispose of its possible severe clinical consequences.

Methods: This retrospective study collected 1995 consecutive patients who underwent anterior resection of rectal cancer with primary anastomosis at Northern Jiangsu People's Hospital between January 2016 and June 2022. Independent risk factors associated with anastomotic leakage were analyzed by univariate and multivariate logistic regression. The chosen independent risk factors were used to construct a nomogram risk prediction model whose availability was evaluated by using a bootstrapped-concordance index and calibration plots with R software.

Results: A total of 1995 patients who underwent anterior resection for rectal cancer were included while 120 patients were diagnosed with anastomotic leakage, an incidence of 6.0%. Univariate analysis and its concomitant multivariate cox regression analysis indicated that independent risk factors associated with anastomotic leakage included male gender (odds ratio (OR) = 2.873), diabetes (OR = 2.480), neoadjuvant therapy (OR = 5.283), tumor's distance from the anus verge < 5 cm (OR = 5.824), tumor size ≥ 5 cm (OR = 4.888), and the blood lose > 50 mL (OR = 9.606).We established a nomogram prediction model with proper applicability (concordance index, 0.83) and the calibration curve to justify its predictive ability that the predicted occurrence probability keeps a high degree of consistency with the actual occurrence probability. Meanwhile, the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was 0.83.

Conclusions: The characteristics of patients and tumor surgery-related conditions can affect the incidence of anastomotic leakage. However, whether the surgical method will affect morbidity is still controversial. Our nomogram can be seen as an effective instrument to predict anastomotic leakage after anterior resection for rectal cancer precisely.

Keywords: Anastomotic leakage; Nomogram prediction model; Rectal cancer; Risk factor.