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. 2023 May 23:151:e90.
doi: 10.1017/S0950268823000766.

Clinical epidemiology and a novel predicting nomogram of central line associated bloodstream infection in burn patients

Yangping Wang  1 , Qimeng Li  1 , Qin Shu  2 , Menglong Liu  1 , Ning Li  1 , Wen Sui  3 , Zhiqiang Yuan  1 , Gaoxing Luo  1 , Haisheng Li  1
Affiliations

Clinical epidemiology and a novel predicting nomogram of central line associated bloodstream infection in burn patients

Yangping Wang et al. Epidemiol Infect. .

Abstract

Burn patients are at high risk of central line-associated bloodstream infection (CLABSI). However, the diagnosis of such infections is complex, resource-intensive, and often delayed. This study aimed to investigate the epidemiology of CLABSI and develop a prediction model for the infection in burn patients. The study analysed the infection profiles, clinical epidemiology, and central venous catheter (CVC) management of patients in a large burn centre in China from January 2018 to December 2021. In total, 222 burn patients with a cumulative 630 CVCs and 5,431 line-days were included. The CLABSI rate was 23.02 CVCs per 1000 line-days. The three most common bacterial species were Acinetobacter baumannii, Staphylococcus aureus, and Pseudomonas aeruginosa; 76.09% of isolates were multidrug resistant. Compared with a non-CLABSI cohort, CLABSI patients were significantly older, with more severe burns, more CVC insertion times, and longer total line-days, as well as higher mortality. Regression analysis found longer line-days, more catheterisation times, and higher burn wounds index to be independent risk factors for CLABSI. A novel nomogram based on three risk factors was constructed with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) value of 0.84 (95% CI: 0.782-0.898) with a mean absolute error of calibration curve of 0.023. The nomogram showed excellent predictive ability and clinical applicability, and provided a simple, practical, and quantitative strategy to predict CLABSI in burn patients.

Keywords: Burns; central line–associated bloodstream infection; epidemiology; nomogram; prediction.

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Conflict of interest statement

All authors report no conflict of interest relevant to this article.

Figures

Figure 1.
Figure 1.
Flow chart of patient selection.
Figure 2.
Figure 2.
The annual incidence of CLABSI in burn patients. (a) The annual incidence of CVCs with CLABSI per 1,000-day line-days. (b) The annual percentage of burn patients with CLABSI in total burn patients.
Figure 3.
Figure 3.
Construction and evaluation of nomogram for predicting CLABSI in burn patients. (a) The developed nomogram for predicting CLABSI in burn patients; (b) ROC curves of nomogram; (c) calibration curve analysis of nomogram; (d) decision curve analysis of nomogram.
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