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. 2023 May 23;23(1):930.
doi: 10.1186/s12889-023-15888-1.

Spatio-temporal dynamic of the COVID-19 epidemic and the impact of imported cases in Rwanda

Muhammed Semakula  1   2   3 , François Niragire  4 , Sabin Nsanzimana  5 , Eric Remera  5 , Christel Faes  6
Affiliations

Spatio-temporal dynamic of the COVID-19 epidemic and the impact of imported cases in Rwanda

Muhammed Semakula et al. BMC Public Health. .

Abstract

Introduction: Africa was threatened by the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) due to the limited health care infrastructure. Rwanda has consistently used non-pharmaceutical strategies, such as lockdown, curfew, and enforcement of prevention measures to control the spread of COVID-19. Despite the mitigation measures taken, the country has faced a series of outbreaks in 2020 and 2021. In this paper, we investigate the nature of epidemic phenomena in Rwanda and the impact of imported cases on the spread of COVID-19 using endemic-epidemic spatio-temporal models. Our study provides a framework for understanding the dynamics of the epidemic in Rwanda and monitoring its phenomena to inform public health decision-makers for timely and targeted interventions.

Results: The findings provide insights into the effects of lockdown and imported infections in Rwanda's COVID-19 outbreaks. The findings showed that imported infections are dominated by locally transmitted cases. The high incidence was predominant in urban areas and at the borders of Rwanda with its neighboring countries. The inter-district spread of COVID-19 was very limited due to mitigation measures taken in Rwanda.

Conclusion: The study recommends using evidence-based decisions in the management of epidemics and integrating statistical models in the analytics component of the health information system.

Keywords: COVID-19; Epidemiology; Spatio-temporal models.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare no competing interests.

Figures

Fig. 1
Fig. 1
(A) Number of COVID-19 reported cases per week and national lockdown restrictions (grey vertical lines). Top panel: all infected cases in 2020-2021. (B) Lower panel: number of imported COVID-19 cases per week. Notes: The first epidemic week started on 15th March 2020, and the last week of the epidemic ends on 19th December 2021 in this study
Fig. 2
Fig. 2
COVID-19 incidence rate per 100,000 inhabitants in Rwanda’s districts. (A) Left: incidence of all cases (local and imported) after 93 weeks. (B) Right: Incidence of imported infected cases after 93 weeks
Fig. 3
Fig. 3
Estimated multiplicative effect of seasonality on the endemic mean and lockdown restrictions(grey vertical dotted lines)
Fig. 4
Fig. 4
Maps of the fitted component contributions: within epidemic component (Autoregressive), between epidemic component (Spatio-temporal) and endemic component (right). (A) Top panel corresponds to the model for all cases, (B) bottom panel to the model for the local cases
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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