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. 2023 May;131(5):57008.
doi: 10.1289/EHP11616. Epub 2023 May 24.

Relationship between Climate Variables and Dengue Incidence in Argentina

María S López  1   2 , Andre A Gómez  1   2 , Gabriela V Müller  1   2 , Elisabet Walker  1   2 , Michael A Robert  3   4 , Elizabet L Estallo  5   6
Affiliations

Relationship between Climate Variables and Dengue Incidence in Argentina

María S López et al. Environ Health Perspect. 2023 May.

Abstract

Background: Climate change is an important driver of the increased spread of dengue from tropical and subtropical regions to temperate areas around the world. Climate variables such as temperature and precipitation influence the dengue vector's biology, physiology, abundance, and life cycle. Thus, an analysis is needed of changes in climate change and their possible relationships with dengue incidence and the growing occurrence of epidemics recorded in recent decades.

Objectives: This study aimed to assess the increasing incidence of dengue driven by climate change at the southern limits of dengue virus transmission in South America.

Methods: We analyzed the evolution of climatological, epidemiological, and biological variables by comparing a period of time without the presence of dengue cases (1976-1997) to a more recent period of time in which dengue cases and important outbreaks occurred (1998-2020). In our analysis, we consider climate variables associated with temperature and precipitation, epidemiological variables such as the number of reported dengue cases and incidence of dengue, and biological variables such as the optimal temperature ranges for transmission of dengue vector.

Results: The presence of dengue cases and epidemic outbreaks are observed to be consistent with positive trends in temperature and anomalies from long-term means. Dengue cases do not seem to be associated with precipitation trends and anomalies. The number of days with optimal temperatures for dengue transmission increased from the period without dengue cases to the period with occurrences of dengue cases. The number of months with optimal transmission temperatures also increased between periods but to a lesser extent.

Conclusions: The higher incidence of dengue virus and its expansion to different regions of Argentina seem to be associated with temperature increases in the country during the past two decades. The active surveillance of both the vector and associated arboviruses, together with continued meteorological data collection, will facilitate the assessment and prediction of future epidemics that use trends in the accelerated changes in climate. Such surveillance should go hand in hand with efforts to improve the understanding of the mechanisms driving the geographic expansion of dengue and other arboviruses beyond the current limits. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP11616.

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Figures

Figure 1A is a bar graph titled Annual dengue cases in Argentina, plotting number of cases, ranging from 0 to 60000 in increments of 10000 (y-axis) across years, ranging from 1998 to 2020 (x-axis). Figure 1B is a set of five line graphs titled Northeast, Northwest, Center, Cuyo, South, plotting number of incidence, ranging from 175 to 575 in increments of 200; 175 to 575 in increments of 200; 40 to 190 in increments of 50; 25 to 175 in increments of 50; 25 to 175 in increments of 50 (y-axis) across years, ranging from 1997 to 2021 in increments of 3 (x-axis), respectively. Figure 1C is a map of Argentina, depicting different regions. Region 1: Northwest: Jujury, Salta, Tucuman, Catamarca, Santiago del Estero. Region 2: Northeast: Chaco, Formosa, Corrientes, Misiones. Region 3: Center: Cordoba, Entre Rios, Santa Fe, Buenos Aires. Region 4: Cuyo: San Luis, La rioja, San Juan, Mendoza. Region 5: South: Neuquen, La Pampa, Rio Negro, Chubut, Santa Cruz, Tierria del Fuego. A scale depicts kilometers ranges from 0 to 400 in increments of 100.
Figure 1.
(A) Cases of dengue in Argentina in the period 1998–2020. (B) Incidence of DENV by geographic region (cases per 100,000 inhabitants). (C) Geographic regions of Argentina. Supplemental material Table S1.
Figure 2 is a set of four maps of Argentina depicting the incidence of dengue virus in various regions from the period 1998 to 2008. The epidemics were registered in 2009, 2016, and 2020. A scale depicts temperature is divided into five parts, namely, 0 to 0, 0 to 164, 164 to 323, 323 to 492, less than 492.
Figure 2.
Incidence of DENV by region in the period 1998–2008 and in the three epidemics registered in 2009, 2016, and 2020. Supplemental material Table S2.
Figure 3A is a map of Argentina depicting the annual mean temperature from the period 1961 to 2020. Figure 3B is a map of Argentina depicting the maximum temperature from the period 1961 to 2020. Figure 3C is a map of Argentina depicting the minimum temperature from the period 1961 to 2020. A scale depicts temperature (degree Celsius) ranges from negative 2 to 2 in increments of 0.2. Figure 3D is a map of Argentina depicting the precipitation period from the period 1961 to 2020. A scale depicts precipitation period (millimeter) ranges from negative 300 to 300 in increments of 50.
Figure 3.
Trends of (A) annual mean temperature, (B) maximum temperature, (C) minimum temperature, and (D) precipitation in the period 1961–2020 in Argentina. Supplemental material Table S3.
Figures 4A to 4D is a bar graph, plotting Anomaly, ranging from negative 1.5 to 1.5 in increments of 0.5; Anomaly, ranging from negative 1.5 to 1.5 in increments of 0.5; Anomaly, ranging from negative 1.5 to 2.0 in increments of 0.5; and Cases, ranging from 0 to 60000 in increments of 10000 (y-axis) across years, ranging from 1976 to 2020 in increments of 4 years (x-axis) for mean temperature anomaly, minimum temperature anomaly, maximum temperature anomaly, and Dengue cases.
Figure 4.
Temperature anomalies (°C) and autochthonous dengue cases (number of cases per year) in Argentina for the period 1976–2020. The dotted lines divide the two periods compared the periods 1976–1997 and 1998–2020. Supplemental material Table S4.
Figure 5A is a map of Argentina, depicting the temperature anomalies period from the year 1976 to 1997 (without the dengue virus transmission). A scale depicts the temperature anomalies ranges as negative 1 by 0, 0 by 1, 1 by 2. Figure 5B is a map of Argentina, depicting the temperature anomalies period from the year 1976 to 2020 (with the dengue virus transmission). A scale depicts the dengue virus incidence range as 0 to 0, 0 to 672, 672 to 1008, and 1008 to 1344. Figure 5C is a map of Argentina, depicting the precipitation anomalies period from the year 1976 to 1997 (without the dengue virus transmission). A scale depicts the precipitation anomalies ranges as negative 0.4 by 0, 0 by 0.2, and greater than 0.2. Figure 5D is a map of Argentina, depicting the precipitation anomalies period from the year 1976 to 2020 (with the dengue virus transmission). A scale depicts the dengue virus incidence range as 0 to 0, 0 to 672, 672 to 1008, and 1008 to 1344.
Figure 5.
Anomalies of mean temperature (above) and total precipitation (below) in the different regions of Argentina in the period without DENV transmission (left) and with DENV transmission (right). (A) Temperature anomalies, period 1976–1997 (without DENV transmission), (B) Temperature anomalies, period 1998–2020 (with DENV transmission), (C) Precipitation anomalies, period 1976–1997 (without DENV transmission), and (D) Precipitation anomalies, period 1998–2020 (with DENV transmission). Supplemental material Table S5.
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